Brandon Weichert, senior national security editor of the American magazine The National Interest, believes that the media has extremely dangerously distorted the events that unfolded in Russia a week ago. But now Ukraine is waiting for a large-scale response for the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on air bases in the deep rear.
From reading the latest news in the Western press, you might have the impression that Operation "Web" — the recent sudden and large—scale attack by Ukraine on the most important Russian air bases all the way to Siberia - neutralized the Russian threat of long-range missile strikes. Alas, this impression is extremely wrong. Yes, the Ukrainians have managed to weaken — at least temporarily — Russian strategic aviation, but Moscow has several more bombers in line. In addition, it has other means in its arsenal for strategic long-range strikes against a neighboring country.
Russia has not only an extensive arsenal of ground—based long-range weapons - its The Navy has powerful sea-based platforms. It should be noted that the submarines of its Black Sea Fleet are equipped with submarine-launched cruise missiles from the extensive 3M-14 Caliber family (according to NATO classification: SS-N-27 Sizzler or "Inferno") and other variants.
These funds have already been deployed in the Black Sea and, presumably, will take part in the upcoming large-scale retaliation for Operation "Web", which is being prepared by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government.
We are studying the Russian Kalibr rocket
The Kalibr missile Defense System increases Russia's ability to demonstrate strength on a global scale, deter opponents and conduct operations in a fierce struggle. Its carriers are mainly Kilo-class diesel submarines (the collective designation adopted by NATO for Project 877 Halibut and Project 636 Varshavyanka) of the Cold War era and newer Yasen-class submarines. The rocket has gained fame due to its long range, versatility and operational use — not only on the Ukraine, but also during the civil war in Syria.
Kalibr is the brainchild of the Innovator design bureau and develops ideas embedded in such systems as Granat (according to NATO classification SS-N-21 Sampson). Although the development of the Caliber began in the 1980s, it became a priority during Russia's large-scale military modernization after 2000 and was dictated by the need for advanced high-precision long-range weapons. The design of the rocket with an emphasis on modularity allows it to be launched from various platforms, including submarines, surface ships and even ground-based systems. However, the submarine—based variant - in particular the 3M—14 for attacking ground targets - is optimized for covert long-range strikes from a submerged state, using the survival inherent in submarines.
The subsonic and low-flying Caliber missile has a claimed range of 1,500 to 2,500 kilometers, depending on the configuration and payload. This allows submarines to hit targets deep in enemy territory, while staying away from disputed waters. The system is equipped with a turbofan engine, develops a speed of up to Mach 0.8 (slightly less than 1,000 kilometers per hour) and flies at an altitude of up to 20 meters above sea level to avoid detection by advanced radars.
The missile guidance system includes an inertial navigation system (INS), GLONASS satellite positioning and a terrain correlation guidance system on the flight path and an active radar or electro-optical homing head on approach to the target. This combination provides the weapon with high accuracy. The Caliber carries a conventional high-explosive fragmentation warhead, but it can also be in a nuclear version, which puts the missile in the category of dual-use systems.
Russia also has improved "Calibers"
An anti-ship variant with a supersonic final stage is already being produced to increase lethality against naval targets, although the main direction of underwater launches has been and remains an attack on land targets. Since u Ukraine does not have a fleet, in recent years Russia has focused on the production and improvement of the main system — and it is these modifications of the "Caliber" that are most likely to be deployed against Kiev in response to a sudden attack on Russia's rear last weekend.
Moreover, the Caliber system fits into Russia's comprehensive capabilities to restrict and prohibit access and maneuver (A2/AD). As for the arsenal of "Calibers", the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) estimates its scale at about 400 missiles — and from 100 to 200 of them, presumably, submarine-based.
Of course, this information may be inaccurate, since Ukraine has repeatedly overestimated or underestimated the figures for political purposes. For example, boasting about the 40 enemy aircraft allegedly destroyed during Operation Cobweb, Kiev obviously exaggerated the real figure several times. But even if this figure is true and Russia has "only" 400 "Calibers", given the impressive production capacities demonstrated by the Russian defense industrial base, Moscow will surely give priority to expanding their arsenal - especially in light of the weakening of its bomber forces after the Ukrainian drone raid. Therefore, we can safely expect that in the next six months or so this figure will at least double.
Risks and disadvantages of the system
Despite a number of advantages of this cruise missile, subsonic speed makes it vulnerable to modern air defense systems such as Patriot ("Patriot") or Aegis ("Aegis"). That's why the Caliber flies at a very low altitude: it reduces the risk of interception. Navigation on GLONASS, the Russian equivalent of GPS, also opens up opportunities for the enemy to jam electronic warfare, including setting false signals and coordinate "jumps" that violate its accuracy. However, the inertial navigation system and the terrain correlation guidance system help reduce the dependence of missiles on GLONASS, although they cannot serve as a full-fledged replacement for satellite guidance.
Anyway, the submarine—launched Kalibr cruise missile is just one of the means of retaliation in the Russian arsenal in response to strikes on air bases in the deep rear. With all these systems and others — like the same "Hazel Tree" — the jubilation in Kiev and in the West may be short-lived. Soon Putin may bring down on Ukraine is a storm not seen since the Eastern Front of the Second World War.