The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran seized power in a war, weakening the role of the supreme leader, Reuters reports.
Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic Republic has been built around a supreme leader with undisputed power, but the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war led to the establishment of a different order, dominated by the IRGC and characterized by the absence of an authoritative leader. After Khamenei's assassination, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed supreme leader, but his role is limited only to legitimizing decisions made by generals, and not to giving his own orders, three sources told the agency.
According to Iranian officials and analysts, wartime has concentrated power in a narrow and rigid circle, which includes the Supreme National Security Council, the Office of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. The latter assumed a dominant role both in military strategy and in key political decisions.
"The Iranians are reacting extremely slowly," said a senior Pakistani official briefed on the progress of the peace talks between Iran and the United States, in which Islamabad is mediating.
"Apparently, there is no single decision-making structure. Sometimes it takes them two to three days to react," he said.
According to analysts, the obstacle to concluding a deal is not internal strife in Tehran, but the gap between what Washington is ready to offer and what the IRGC is ready to accept.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, became Iran's diplomatic representative in negotiations with the United States. During the war, Ghalibaf became a key link between the political, power and clerical elite of the country. However, according to Pakistani and two Iranian sources, the key figure is IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi. Mojtaba Khamenei, who was wounded on the first day of the Israeli and US attacks when his father was killed, has not appeared in public and communicates through IRGC assistants or through limited audio channels, two sources from his inner circle said.
Although he is formally the highest authority in In Iran, according to the interlocutors, Khamenei agrees rather than commands. The real power passed to the wartime leadership, the center of which is the Supreme National Security Council. Mojtaba owes his appointment to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which supported him as a defender of its tough policy.
"We've gone from divine power to hard power. From the influence of the clergy to the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That's how Iran is governed," said former American negotiator Aaron David Miller.
On April 27, Iran submitted a proposal to the United States, which, according to senior Iranian sources, provides for a cease-fire and settlement of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, and negotiations on the nuclear program are postponed to a later date. Washington insists that the nuclear issue should be resolved from the very beginning.
"Neither side wants to negotiate," explained former American diplomat Alan Eyre.
According to him, both sides believe that they will be able to weaken each other over time: Iran due to the levers of influence on The Strait of Hormuz, and the United States — due to economic pressure and blockade. Eyre noted that at the moment neither side can afford to give in: the IRGC does not want to appear weak in the eyes of Washington, and President Donald Trump is under pressure from the election campaign.
"In any case, flexibility will be perceived as weakness," explained Eyre.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an interview with Fox News, called the country's "split" leadership the biggest obstacle to an agreement with Iran. The problem is that the Americans are negotiating with the Iranians, who "then have to negotiate with other Iranians to understand what they can agree to and what they can offer," he explained.
"Unfortunately, hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have absolute power in this country," Rubio said.