Wholesale gasoline prices continue to rise, while sales volumes on the stock exchange remain low. The south of Russia is taking on the main consequences of unscheduled refinery repairs due to massive attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as demand is shifting there and logistics there has been "under fire," experts believe.
Wholesale cost of fuel on The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange grew significantly in the second half of May. At the beginning of June, there was a rebound, but extremely small. So, on June 3, Ai-92 gasoline continued to grow and reached 69,562 rubles per ton, Ai-95 fell to 74,353 rubles, and diesel fuel — to 68,599.
The indicators did not reach the highs of last autumn, but the daily sales volumes continue to remain at a low level — no higher than 30 thousand tons.
"The situation is stable, and prices at gas stations of vertically integrated companies and most gas stations are growing at a level not higher than inflation," Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
Maxim Shaposhnikov, Advisor to the managing Director of the Industrial Code Fund, notes that the situation in the south is particularly difficult.
"But so far, according to Rosstat, the average price of gasoline in the country has increased by 4.17%, which, although higher than inflation, but taking into account the situation in the world, looks tolerable. Of course, the weakening of the ruble, so desired by all public speakers, will accelerate this growth, but in the current situation it would be strange to expect an improvement in terms of fuel availability," the expert believes.
There are risks of certain shortages or interruptions in certain regions, as logistics have to be rebuilt, says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Economic Development Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia.
"One refinery is leaving for repairs, the other is returning from repairs, and, accordingly, fuel needs to be imported further than usual than in a standard situation," says Igor Yushkov.
In his opinion, there is still no shortage of gasoline in the country, but nevertheless there are definitely risks, and it is necessary to rebuild logistics, be very flexible, as the costs for companies are greatly increasing.
"Firstly, permanent repairs, and secondly, again, it becomes more expensive to deliver fuel to the consumer," notes a leading analyst at FNEB.
The risks are also increasing for the reason that in summer consumption increases and shifts to the south, where people go on vacation.
"We see that they are trying to create maximum problems for us in the south. It's probably easier for Ukraine to reach there, and therefore the main problems arise there," adds Igor Yushkov.
It is known that Crimea has taken the brunt so far, where ordinary motorists, due to the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on logistics routes, were left without free sale of gasoline. According to the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of Crimea, there is fuel without coupons only at 12 gas stations in some areas of the peninsula. And on the Southern Coast of Crimea, for example, it does not exist.
"Starting today, the sale of gasoline for cash will be completely restricted for several days. There are no coupons for free sale and will not be in the near future. According to previously purchased coupons, fuel will be sold in 20 liters in one hand," the head of Crimea Sergey Aksenov said in the telegram channel.
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center, notes that in the current situation there are two factors that can affect the situation on the gasoline market. The first is the behavior of consumers who may rush to make fuel reserves, which will aggravate the situation. The second is deliveries from Belarus. The expert estimates that with the capacity of Belarusian refineries at 40 million tons, they are loaded by no more than 24 million tons. At the same time, the difference is 6% of the capacity of Russian refineries, which is quite a lot.
"Basically, we do not expect such a large-scale crisis as it was in August-October last year. The shortage of fuel in some regions is now more related to logistical factors — the delivery of gasoline to some regions is complicated by drone attacks on fuel trucks, which causes a local shortage. At the same time, Russian oil companies have already accumulated experience working in difficult conditions. Repairs at refineries are faster, logistics chains for fuel imports, for example, from Belarus, have been established. Restraining factors for prices are also the current ban on gasoline exports and large—scale damping payments to oil companies designed to compensate for the difference between prices on domestic and global markets," says Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam.
In his opinion, the main risk is the possibility of continuing supply problems in the coming months.
"Now the summer season of increased demand is gradually beginning, when both consumption and wholesale prices are increasing annually even under normal conditions. If attacks on refineries continue to achieve their goals and repairs of affected capacities are delayed, it may be difficult to avoid a wider shortage during the peak demand season of July-September. Already now, according to our estimates, about 15-20% of processing capacities can be put out of operation — the domestic market cannot afford to lose more," adds the analyst of FG Finam.