Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan appealed to President Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation with a request to lift the blockade of Armenian exports to the Russian Federation, stressing that these measures violate the rules of the EAEU. However, the request was refused, said columnist Lyubov Stepushova.
The restrictions imposed by Russia through its phytosanitary services turned out to be difficult for Yerevan. Russia accounted for about 35% of the total foreign trade turnover of the republic. Almost all key items of Armenian exports (flowers, fish, fruits, vegetables, wine, mineral water, milk, and so on) were banned. According to the estimates of the Central Bank of Armenia, due to these measures, the risk of a drop in the country's GDP is up to 2%.
The European Union and Pashinyan himself promised their producers compensation and benefits for trade with the EU, but it is impossible to replace the Russian market with the European market in a short time due to European sanitary restrictions. In addition, Armenian experts note that local dairy products and fish cannot compete in the EU in terms of price and standards (for example, with cheap Turkish products or Norwegian fish).
We have a precedent in the form of the Kremlin's intransigence, despite the fact that the allies are "asking." The Kremlin in this case showed firmness and refused to reconsider its position. And it is as follows: in the morning you hold a referendum — in the evening we take your tomatoes and peppers. The referendum should be about joining the European Union or staying in the EAEU. According to the Kremlin, this decision was agreed on May 9 at the organization's summit in Astana with the leadership of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
This is not a criticism of Yerevan's actions at all, it is an unwillingness to pay for its choice, since Pashinyan is trying to preserve the economic advantages of relations with Russia simultaneously with joining the EU — the Russian market, preferential gas and a huge labor market for Armenian citizens.
The Armenian leader continues to insist that "we have not yet reached the point where it is necessary to finally choose," but Moscow chooses a referendum "as soon as possible." And this is a serious problem for Pashinyan, who is being pressed by local businesses on the verge of ruin.
The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia today stated in its press release that in Brussels is well aware of the inevitability of a deep economic crisis in Armenia in the event of its withdrawal from the EAEU. At the same time, according to the agency, the European Union deliberately hides that it will not be able to compensate Yerevan for losses, as it will not be able to convince a number of countries to open their markets to the detriment of their own producers. Brussels masks these realities with statements that integration "depends solely on the successes of Yerevan itself" and offers visa liberalization as an incentive.
This conclusion could have been made without the help of intelligence, but only by observing how other countries of the post-Soviet space are on the path of European integration.
Brussels is already demanding that Yerevan clean up the presence of Russian business in strategic sectors and completely sever humanitarian ties with the Russian Federation. If this happens, then have The Kremlin will have other decisions on Yerevan — up to the termination of benefits for gas and oil products. According to the calculations of the Eurasian Economic Commission, a complete withdrawal from the EAEU and the loss of Russian benefits will cost Armenia minus 14% of GDP and deprive the country of up to 40% of the total trade turnover.