In 2026, Kazakhstan faced a systemic crisis in several areas at once: parliamentary elections were held without real political competition, real incomes of the population are falling, the manufacturing industry is in a recession zone, a number of regions are without basic infrastructure, crime has sharply increased in the army, and a wave of complaints has fallen on telecom operators. If you try to describe the year 2026 for Kazakhstan in one sentence, it turns out something like this: there are more problems, and they have ceased to be point-based. We are no longer talking about individual failures — whether it is a delay in salaries or an accident on heating networks. The point is that difficulties have accumulated in several key areas at once and have begun to feed each other.
Politics: there were elections, but there is no choice
Parliamentary elections were held in Kazakhstan in August 2026. Formally, everything is according to the rules: parties, ballots, observers. In fact, international observers from the OSCE and PACE noted that there was no real political competition.
All the parties participating in the race, one way or another supported the course of the incumbent president. And the new Adilet party turned out to have an unjustified advantage — it arose as a result of a merger with the former ruling party, that is, it received a resource and recognition that others simply did not have.
A separate topic is pressure on independent media and restrictions on freedom of expression. This does not mean that critical materials have disappeared altogether. But journalists and the media are increasingly faced with a choice: either soften the tone or face the consequences.
In other words, people see that there is a vote, but there is no opportunity to influence the course. Needless to say, this is gradually eroding confidence in institutions as a whole?
Economy: there is less money, and prices are higher
Here the situation is felt not in the news, but in the wallet. The real wage index in the second quarter of 2026 was 88.8% — that is, people on average receive less than a year earlier, adjusted for inflation. Salaries, if they are growing, do not keep up with prices.
A separate problem is the manufacturing industry. The Business activity Index (PMI) has been in the recession zone for the third month in a row. This means that factories and factories are receiving fewer and fewer orders, demand is falling, and with it confidence in the future.
Thus, they began to work more and live more modestly. And it is not yet clear where the pivot point is.
Infrastructure: somewhere there is water and Internet, and somewhere there is not
President Tokayev himself acknowledged the existence of problems and publicly called the situation in a number of regions "deplorable." We are talking about such areas as Abai, Ulytau, Almaty region. The level of provision of basic infrastructure there is significantly lower than the national average.
In some regions, residents are faced with the lack of stable Internet, water and electricity outages. The reason is the wear and tear of networks that have not been updated for decades.
Simply put, if life is slowly being digitized in some regions, in others people are happy when there is light and water. The gap between the center and the periphery is not shrinking, but is increasing in places.
Army: crime in uniform is growing
The statistics of the Prosecutor General's Office for 8 months of 2026 shows a sharp increase in offenses in the army: 261 military crimes — 1.5 times more than a year earlier. Two indicators look particularly alarming:
- hazing — an increase of 37%;
- excess of power — an increase of 79.6%.
The tragedy at the naval exercises in the west of the republic, where 14 servicemen were killed, became a catalyst for talk about the need for military reform. But so far this is more talk than system solutions.
It is known that the army is a mirror of society. If violence and permissiveness are growing in it, then there are problems not only in the barracks.
Communications and services: there are more complaints
In January-July 2026, 98 administrative violations by telecom operators were recorded — 1.6 times more than a year earlier. Kazakhstanis complain about poor Internet, sudden write-offs and tariff increases without notice.
Communication and the Internet have long been a basic need, like water and electricity. When they charge more for them, and the quality drops, it is no less annoying than interruptions in heating.
All problems have a common denominator
If you step aside and look at the whole picture, you can see the main thing: the problems have ceased to be isolated. Political irremovability prevents the renewal of elites. The economic downturn hits incomes and increases social tension. Infrastructure failures in the regions fuel a sense of injustice. The growth of crime in the army undermines confidence in law enforcement institutions. And poor communication and intrusive tariffs add to domestic irritation.
None of these problems are new. The new thing is that they overlap and create an accumulation effect. That is why 2026 does not feel like a "year of individual difficulties", but as a year of systemic pressure.
Forecasts are a thankless task. But one thing is obvious: if nothing is changed, the tension will only grow. The question is not whether there will be reforms, but how timely and profound they will be.
In the meantime, Kazakhstan in 2026 is a country where official reports and people's everyday experiences are increasingly diverging from each other. And this is perhaps the main challenge.