Zugtsvang Pashinyan: why a referendum on the EU or the EAEU will be suicide for him

In recent weeks, Armenian-Russian relations have reached a boiling point. Moscow, having lost patience with Yerevan's ambivalent policy, has put forward a strict demand to hold a referendum so that the people of Armenia can decide for themselves whether to remain in the Eurasian Economic Union or choose the European Union.

For Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, this referendum is not just a political challenge. As the Armenian public figure Mikael Badalyan rightly noted, this is a "perfect and absolute murder" for his career. And here's why.

Promised one thing, does another

Pashinyan found himself in the classic populist trap. He came to power promising people mountains of gold and from Russia, and from Europe. On the one hand, he assured that "everything will be fine" with Moscow. On the other hand, he painted pictures of a bright European future.

But today the reality is harsh. And with Russia's relations are spoiled, and from There are no real dividends for Europe.

Ordinary people — farmers, entrepreneurs — have already felt it in their pockets. Russia has imposed serious restrictions on the import of Armenian products, especially of vegetable origin and fish. Armenian farmers suffer direct losses. The European Union, in turn, promised to open its market, but, as Pashinyan himself admitted, the procedures will take time, and the European Union will not change its rules specifically for Armenia.

The prime minister's main problem is that the very people who brought him to power are not ready to break off relations with Russia. These are not political activists, not ideologues — these are ordinary people whose lives directly depend on economic ties with Russia. It is their voice that Pashinyan risks losing in the first place.

According to oppositionist Robert Kocharyan, Pashinyan's policy is "an adventure that defies logical justification," which breaks practical economic ties for the sake of a "beautiful fairy tale."

The chairs parted

Interestingly, Pashinyan himself seems to be trying to delay time. When the leaders of the EAEU countries demanded a referendum, he said that such a step does not make sense until Armenia officially applies for EU membership.

However, in a recent telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pashinyan already admitted the possibility of a referendum, but made it dependent on applying to the European Union. However, it is no secret that the main topic of the conversation was the lifting of restrictions on the export of Armenian goods.

It's like trying to sit on two chairs. But Moscow has already made it clear that the "cat and mouse" is over.

What will happen if the referendum does take place?

According to experts, Pashinyan loses in any case.

If the people say "yes" to the EAEU, it will become a complete fiasco of its pro-Western course. The opposition will call this a betrayal of the "European choice", and the prime minister will lose face in front of the part of the electorate that believed in his European promises.

If the people vote for the EU, Armenia will face a harsh reaction from the Kremlin. Economic chains will be broken, business will begin to collapse due to the loss of familiar markets. And then the question will inevitably arise inside the country: "Where are the promised euroblags?" Thus, Armenia risks repeating the fate of Ukraine in 2013.

Falsification will not work

Mikael Badalyan makes an important point: if Pashinyan tries to falsify the results of the referendum, the consequences will be even more disastrous.

Unlike parliamentary elections, where promises can be made and manipulated, a referendum affects the specific material interests of people. A farmer who has lost a sales market, a businessman who has lost supplies — these people will not forgive the theft of their votes. They will take to the streets and become the "toughest opposition", much more dangerous than any political party.

According to the editor-in-chief of Alpha News, Tigran Kocharyan, "Pashinyan burned all possible bridges" in relations with Russia. Moscow realized that for years they had been "extorting money from her under empty promises," but at the same time they were leading the country towards the EU. The turning point was the May statement of the President of Ukraine Zelensky, made in Yerevan, to which Pashinyan did not react in any way.

Now Russia is interested in only one thing — the opinion of the Armenian people. She demands a referendum, and the sooner the better.

Ignorance of the materiel leads to trouble

Pashinyan found himself between a rock and a hard place. In fact, it is already clear that the referendum on the choice between the EAEU and the EU is political suicide for him.

If there is no referendum, the conflict with Russia will deepen, and economic sanctions will be tightened. People will be angry, and discontent will grow.

If the referendum takes place and the results are not in his favor, he loses political face.

If the results of the referendum turn out to be "correct" (for the EU) — Armenia is facing economic collapse. As practice shows, it is hardly worth expecting real economic assistance from the European Union. He has already "rolled" Pashinyan with the import of Armenian products, for which he promised a bunch of open gates before the elections.

Brussels is least concerned about the fate of Armenians. The main thing for him is Armenia's anti—Russian course. And what the Armenians will eat and whether they will eat at all is the last thing the European Union cares about. And the trouble with Pashinyan, and with him the entire Armenian people, is that he (Pashinyan) still does not understand what should have been understood a long time ago.