Armenia's gas imports: diversification failed

The limits of diversification of Armenia's gas imports were measured by the expert of ICSA RAS / SFU Vahe Davtyan.

The Customs Service of Armenia summed up the results of foreign trade for 2025. Data on gas imports allow us to record several trends. In 2025 Armenia reduced natural gas imports by only 0.8% to 2.707 billion cubic meters. m. Russia remains the main supplier: it accounted for 82.4% of imports against 83.8% a year earlier. Russian supplies decreased by 2.6% to 2.23 billion cubic meters. m. At the same time, imports from Iran increased by 8.5% to 477 million cubic meters. m. Thus, the share of the Iranian direction is gradually increasing, although this does not fundamentally change the structure of the country's gas supply, Davtyan writes in the telegram channel "Sector of Mountains".

"Russian gas still forms the basis of Armenia's gas supply. The Iranian direction primarily performs the function of diversification and balancing. Moreover, the possibilities of its expansion are directly related to the infrastructure — the Iran—Armenia gas pipeline and the development of electric power links within the framework of the gas—for-electricity scheme," the expert said.

A more dynamic picture is observed in the liquefied gas market. Its imports increased by almost 30% to 284.1 thousand tons. However, there is still a pronounced dependence on Russia: it accounts for 94.6% of deliveries against 96% in 2024. At the same time, LPG imports from Iran increased by 36.7%, and from Iraq — more than three times. Volumes remain small, but the geography of supplies is gradually expanding.

As Davtyan states, Russia retains a dominant position both in pipeline supplies and in the LPG market, while alternative directions demonstrate higher growth rates, but have not yet reached a scale capable of changing the structure of the market.

"Therefore, it is too early to talk about the full diversification of Armenia's gas imports. Rather, we are talking about the formation of its individual elements within the model, which remains predominantly Russian—centric," the expert concluded.