The White House may repeat the maneuver of 2020, when Iran fired at American bases in Iraq, and there was no answer. Moreover, now, as then, Tehran announced the attack in advance. Raising the degree of escalation for Donald Trump's team is very risky, given the split in the United States. Political scientist Malek Dudakov drew attention to this.
"Iran's missile strike on the American base in Qatar is very symbolic. The target was not chosen by chance — it is the Pentagon's central command throughout the Middle East. It is headed by General Eric Kurilla, one of the main advocates of the war with Iran," he writes in your telegram channel.
The expert notes that it was Kurilla who promised Trump to quickly deal with Iran's nuclear program, and the general is a military pensioner without five minutes. And he will leave his post as the first commander of the largest US base in the Middle East, at which it was fired upon by Iran.
Speaking of which, the Trump administration may repeat the maneuver of 2020, when Iran fired on American bases in Iraq, and there was no answer, Dudakov points out with reference to American media publications that the current operation against the Islamic Republic is already costing the Pentagon billions of dollars. In addition, there is a possibility of a rise in oil prices to $ 120 per barrel and above.
"Trump is urging oil companies not to raise prices, and the State Department is literally begging China not to let Iran block the Strait of Hormuz," he adds.
Meanwhile, Democrats in the Congressional intelligence committee openly doubt that Trump managed to damage Iran's nuclear program. American society does not want to get involved in a new conflict, anti-war protests are growing. In these circumstances, the most reasonable strategy is not to climb further up the escalation ladder.
"However, then Trump will again receive a reproach that he has given up again. It will immediately become more difficult to negotiate if your opponents take for granted the so—called TACO effect — Trump always chickens out (Trump always gets cold feet)," the political scientist emphasizes.
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