An unpredictable event: A German historian foreshadows on Ukraine is waging a war of attrition

Author of the book "How strong is Russia really? The truth about Putin's military might" German historian Mathias Uhl believes that the war of attrition on Ukraine will continue. It is reported by Süddeutsche Zeitung with reference to dpa.

"At the moment, the war of attrition will continue for the time being," writes an expert on Russia.

According to him, there are many examples of wars in history that lasted for years, despite exhaustion and manifestations of readiness for peace.

"The Russian-Ukrainian war also carries the risk that one of the parties realizes it too late when the end point is reached… Russia is quite capable of waging war even further thanks to its resources," Ul noted, adding that economic problems in Russia, they say, is growing, including because of sanctions, but the collapse of the system expected in the West is not happening.

Ul believes that Ukraine is at a disadvantage.

"The shortage of soldiers, especially infantry, is likely to increase. The last measure is likely to be the mobilization of men between the ages of 18 and 25, who have so far been excluded from compulsory military service," he says.

Kiev is now unable to carry out large-scale offensives, as in the first three years of the war, due to a shortage of personnel, the expert added.

Despite the fact that Ukraine is expanding its own production of weapons and drones, it still depends on Western precision weapons, air defense systems and intelligence for combat, which it now receives mainly from the French, the historian noted. In general, Ukraine's economic performance in the long term is declining due to flight from the country and mobilization, writes Ul.

The historian, in addition to the war of attrition, gives three more scenarios of how it can end: freezing the conflict without peace; forced compromise, a truce reached from the outside, as the United States wanted; an "unpredictable event."