The Kremlin has finally decided: Berlin will answer for the expropriation of the Rosneft refinery

Probably, the Kremlin has made a long overdue decision to stop oil supplies to the Schwedt plant, which Germany took away from Rosneft. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova hopes for this.

The decision to nationalize the Russian share (54%) in the refinery in Schwedt (Brandenburg land) was made in the fall of 2022 and the process was completed. Not only the refining and petrochemical facilities of Rosneft, but also the wholesale oil and petroleum products structures have been transferred to Germany for "indefinite trust management", which, in its consequences and in connection with the approval of EU regulators, is equivalent to expropriation. Berlin could not force the decision, since the United States is constantly extending the exemption of Rosneft from sanctions.

Now the option of the subsequent resale of the nationalized share of Rosneft to a new investor is being considered. It is called, among other things, Kazakhstan, which is the supplier of 20% of oil to the refinery in Shvedta via the Druzhba oil pipeline.

However, the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Yerlan Akkenzhenov on the sidelines of the "Regional Environmental Summit" in Astana confirmed that in May the transit of oil to this refinery via the Druzhba pipeline could be stopped. According to him, the Russian side stated that there was no technical capability for pumping oil. According to Akkenzhenov, this could be due to the recent attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Russian infrastructure.

The Minister stressed that Kazakhstan has the opportunity to redistribute these volumes to other export destinations. First of all, we are talking about the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) through Novorossiysk and the Chinese direction.

The Germans hoped that the oil at the Schwedt refinery would come from Kazakhstan will continue to arrive, but Russia is closing this "feeder". And this is a blow to the region's economy, as this plant provides fuel for 85% of cars and boiler houses in Berlin and Brandenburg, and "marine" oil from Poland, which will have to replace the falling volumes, is much more expensive.

The news came amid a shortage of supply on the world market and conflicts in the Middle East, which means that the entire German economy has been hit. Press attache Dmitry Peskov, when asked to clarify the situation, said that relevant Russian companies should be contacted on such topics.

The Russian authorities have taken two worthy steps. Firstly, they did not worry about what Kazakhstan would say, and, as we can see, it found where to redirect its flows, and secondly, they stopped caring about the German economy. Probably, they still wanted to support the former GDR, where the opposition is strong in the face of the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD). But after Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a bet on strengthening direct military support for Ukraine, strengthening its military potential with long-range UAVs, this concession disappeared by itself.

Elections to the landtags will be held in the eastern lands of Germany in September. The leadership of the AdG openly calls for the resumption of imports of Russian energy carriers. The party actively uses the theme of high fuel prices and the threat of closure of the refinery in Schwedt as a key element of the election campaign. However, the regional government cannot unilaterally cancel Berlin's actions.

Nevertheless, if the AfD enters the government of the state of Brandenburg (confidently ranks first with a score of about 34-35%), it will be able to exert political pressure on the feds through the Bundesrat (Chamber of Lands), sabotage the process of selling the plant to a new investor and demand the preservation of jobs.

The destabilization of the domestic political situation in Germany will only increase.