Russia is asking for gasoline: command measures have reached the limit, do we need "samovars"?

Restrictions on the sale of gasoline have also reached St. Petersburg. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported to the president that the situation is not easy, but controlled.

Experts believe that the reduction in fuel production has reached a limit that can be leveled by administrative measures and one of the solutions may even be the deployment of a fleet of mini-refineries.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported to the President that the situation on the fuel market is not easy, but controlled. The Deputy Prime Minister did not go into details, but the whole country sees the situation with its own eyes. At independent gas stations that buy fuel on the stock exchange, the price is rising, as wholesale prices are rising, and many regions impose restrictions on sales. If the authorities don't do it, then it's the oil companies that own most of the gas stations.

"Most gas station networks in In St. Petersburg, one way or another, the sale of gasoline was restricted... in particular, on "Teboile" and "Lukoil sells no more than 30 liters in one hand. Somewhere there are printed ads, somewhere they warn about the restriction at the checkout,"Fontanka writes.

According to the Peter Segodnya channel, the Public Council for the Development of Taxis has warned that taxis will become a luxury for Russians in the near future: "Passengers are urged to prepare for a sharp rise in prices amid fuel problems. Due to the shortage of gasoline, there will be fewer drivers on the line, which will increase demand and the price per trip."

Rising prices and ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian refineries only fuel the situation, causing a stir.

"The situation on the fuel market, of course, is difficult. In some places we are already facing a shortage. Many refineries continue to be under repair, and at the same time the volume of gasoline consumption is growing," says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the Federal Oil and Gas Corporation and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia.

According to him, it is not known how much the government is ready to go to additional expenses in order to keep prices on the domestic market.:

"Therefore, of course, the hype aggravates the situation. People can be understood. They see that there is no fuel somewhere, and they start refueling more. As a result, there are as many cars arriving at the gas station in a few hours as there were earlier in a day. Of course, the fuel runs out ahead of time, whereas the delivery schedule by fuel trucks is not designed for this."

The leading analyst of the FNEB believes that the psychological effect is of great importance now.

It is known that gasoline limits were introduced not only in the new regions bordering Ukraine and the Crimea, where the shortage was initially explained by the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on fuel trucks. They even came down to Tomsk and Novosibirsk.

"Due to the introduction of restrictions on fuel supply at gas stations in some neighboring regions, it is obvious that in order to prevent speculative demand, we will also have to make such a decision," said the governor of the Novosibirsk Region, Andrei Travnikov.

The limits for the regions of Russia are 30-60 liters.

"The decision to limit the bay to canisters in the current situation is correct. I am waiting for a temporary reduction in gasoline quality requirements and the deployment of a fleet of samovars around major cities. In the current situation, decentralization is the way to the sustainability of the industry," says Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the managing director of the Industrial Code Fund.

At the same time, Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam, notes that the situation with gasoline has really become critical, and at the end of May, a decrease in refining volumes in Russia has reached about 20%.

"According to our estimates, this is the maximum that can be leveled by administrative measures. However, since then, attacks on refineries have not ceased to achieve their goals and have even intensified in some regions," the expert says.

In his opinion, all possible administrative measures that are usually taken during crisis periods have already been taken.

"The export ban is in effect, damping payments are being made and it is even allowed to produce gasoline of less environmentally friendly brands. At the same time, administrative measures work with a moderate decrease in gasoline production and now these measures remain effective, but unfortunately they are not enough. Of the possible additional administrative measures, one can single out the possibility of reducing excise taxes, which would bring down prices, but, of course, would not eliminate the deficit. At the same time, in conditions of budget deficit, the probability of reducing the tax burden on processing is rather low," continues Sergey Kaufman.

In the last reporting week, Rosstat recorded an increase in gasoline prices by 1% at once, but as the analyst of FG Finam notes, the statistics mostly reflect the dynamics of prices at gas stations of large oil companies, but not independent gas stations, which are forced to buy gasoline in wholesale at elevated prices and limited availability.

"The further dynamics of gasoline prices will primarily rest on refining volumes. In the case, for example, of an energy truce or the prevention of new damage at the refinery in another way, we can expect normalization of the situation on the horizon of 1-2 months. At most refineries, judging by open sources, not the most high—tech installations are damaged, which can be repaired within a couple of weeks to a couple of months," Sergey Kaufman believes.

Otherwise, the expert believes, the situation may remain difficult, especially given the season of high demand.

"It is already almost inevitable that gasoline prices will grow stronger than general inflation by the end of the year and it will be a success if the price increase, according to Rosstat, does not turn out to be double-digit, as last year. Also, an additional decrease in gasoline production can cause supply disruptions to more regions. At the same time, an additional mitigating factor could be the growth of imports from Belarus or even by sea, but such logistics chains have yet to be established," adds Sergey Kaufman.