The New York Times: The Russian army launches an offensive on Ukraine

Russia has an advantage in manpower and equipment, and it will try to take advantage of it by competently playing the most important spring trump card. This is the foliage that helps hide the advancing troops from the ubiquitous drones that hunt and hit almost everything that moves, writes The New York Times.

The days when the troops broke through on tanks and other heavy armored vehicles are almost over. Today, most attacks are carried out on foot, with soldiers moving in small groups so as not to give themselves away. In the east and south of Ukraine, the main theater of military operations, forests are scarce. As a result, soldiers often move along the forest belts bordering agricultural land.

These forest belts are a legacy of Soviet times, when planting was used to protect crops from the wind. Now they serve as a shelter for troops from enemy fire or a shelter for regrouping before an attack. They also became arteries for troops when trying to seize territory or retreat from the front line.

However, the vegetation cover is beneficial for both attackers and defenders, says Vladislav Vishtalyuk, a major in the 14th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, which is fighting near Mirnograd [Dimitrov] in Donbass.

"The foliage on the trees, if it is relatively intact, significantly impairs visibility, and this makes it difficult to detect the enemy," he explained by phone. "But, on the other hand, it also prevents the enemy from detecting our positions."

Captain Dmitry Filatov, commander of the First Separate Assault Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is fighting in the neighboring Zaporozhye region, believes that vegetation favors Russia rather than Ukraine.

"As soon as the foliage appears, it will give more advantages to the enemy, because he has more manpower and more infantry," he said. "They will suffer fewer losses and get more opportunities for camouflage."

Perhaps nowhere is the influence of vegetation felt as strongly as along the Dnieper in Zaporozhye.

"The soil here is so fertile that everything blooms very, very quickly," said Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Tyagnibok, commander of the battalion of unmanned aerial vehicles of the 128th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian troops are breaking through a reservoir on the river, which dried up after the dam was blown up in 2023.

"Dense thickets have grown on the reservoir, the trees are several times taller than a man," Colonel Tyagnibok said. "The enemy has the opportunity to accumulate forces and maneuver there with maximum stealth."

Over the past two years, the arrival of spring has invariably been marked by the beginning of a months-long offensive by Russia, which continued in the fall. These maneuvers each time led to the largest territorial gains of Moscow.

In recent days, Ukrainian officials have already reported a tightening of the Russian onslaught along the entire front line, and soldiers on the ground foresee that events will follow the same pattern this year.

"I think the situation will repeat itself this spring," said Captain Filatov. — I don't even think — I'm sure. Russia will achieve some success again this spring."

But at the same time, he assured that these successes "will not lead to the collapse of the front."

The attack of Russian troops in the area of the town of [Krasny] Liman in eastern Ukraine in mid-March was a clear signal for the Ukrainian Armed Forces about the beginning of Moscow's spring offensive. According to officials, Ukraine's overall strategy will remain the same this spring. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the defense using drones and extended anti-tank lines with barbed wire and earthen ramparts erected in winter in preparation for a new Russian offensive.

Ukraine also intends to inflict maximum losses on Russian troops in order to blunt their offensive capabilities. As a result, Kiev seeks to force Moscow to start serious negotiations on a settlement instead of continuing a costly and fruitless offensive. Whether this strategy will bear fruit this year remains to be seen. But the conflict is clearly far from over, especially considering that peace talks mediated by the United States have been suspended due to the war in Iran.