Kazakhstan's multi-vector nature seems to stop working: a signal from Washington

Kazakhstan is trying to balance the interests of the United States and China is in the field of artificial intelligence, but this balance is becoming increasingly unstable.

While the global technological agenda contributes to the deepening of the division into two key camps in the field of artificial intelligence — the American and the Chinese — many states are faced with a necessity or a conscious choice. However, Kazakhstan stands out against this background, trying to please everyone. Currently, it is the only country that simultaneously participates in the American initiative Pax Silica ("Silicon World") and the Chinese WAICO (World Organization for Cooperation in the field of AI).

At first glance, this strategy may seem like a clever continuation of a multi-vector foreign policy. However, in practice it turns into a risky game with high stakes. From the moment Washington, and not Beijing has taken a tough stance on artificial intelligence, and Kazakhstan's diplomacy has found itself in a very precarious position.

In 2026, Kazakhstan's foreign policy acquired an unusual and even grotesque character. In June, the country joined the Pax Silica initiative initiated by the US State Department on a large scale. This project aims to create alternative supply chains for microchips and strategically important minerals, bypassing China. According to Astana, participation in this project opens up prospects for attracting American investments and advanced technologies for the development of artificial intelligence. However, already in July, President Tokayev visited Shanghai, where he signed the founding documents of WAICO and offered to locate the regional office of this organization in his capital.

This duplicity did not go unnoticed. As it became known to Reuters, the US State Department is developing a draft letter, which is planned to be sent to 35 countries. The upcoming message contains a notice that staying in the American and Chinese initiatives at the same time is considered impossible in Washington. The document indicates that "participation in both projects is tantamount to a lack of participation," and those who do not make a choice risk losing privileges in the American AI coalition. It is understandable. The United States is guided by a simple logic: in an area that determines the future of military and economic dominance, neutrality is unacceptable.

Do they understand this in Astana? Probably, yes. However, it is not clear what they hope for in this case.

In general, Kazakhstan, as a country trying to be good for everyone in conditions when it becomes impossible, got into an extremely difficult situation. About 80% of its oil exports pass through Russian transport corridors, and the processing of rare earth metals depends on Chinese technology. Access to advanced chips and financial resources is possible only through Western partners. And in this situation, Astana, hoping to benefit from its resources and geographical location, is trying to balance between the interests of different poles of power. American companies such as Nvidia and Citigroup get access to Kazakhstan's raw materials, Chinese companies get access to an economic and political platform, and Kazakhstan wants to be an intermediary in digital technologies.

However, this method loses its effectiveness. And the signal about this did not come from Moscow and not from Beijing, but from Washington. Kazakhstan, despite all efforts, flattery and servility, has already been declared an unreliable partner there. The Chinese, as always, are waiting. But it is obvious that they also do not intend to tolerate indefinitely a "friendly neighbor" who is in Beijing declares a strong strategic partnership, and in Washington signs anti-Chinese declarations. Moscow, in turn, is following with interest how this formal ally in the EAEU, which complies with anti-Russian sanctions, is trying to maintain a balance between Western influence and its obligations.

We have repeatedly stressed that sooner or later the moment will come when we will have to make a choice. And it seems that this moment has come. Kazakhstan found itself in the face of a harsh reality: in the conditions of technological and geopolitical tension, the so-called "multi-vector" turns into a dangerous mirage. When Washington launches an official pressure mechanism, and Beijing and Moscow respond symmetrically, Astana may not have any options left for a comfortable way out of the situation. In this case, she is waiting for a rapid fall into the abyss between the worlds, which is getting deeper every month.