The Wall Street Journal gnashes its teeth: Because of Iran, Putin's luck smiled again

Escalation in The Persian Gulf has radically changed the market situation. Russian hydrocarbons, which did not arouse interest until recently, have turned into a scarce asset, writes the American Wall Street Journal.

A week ago, the energy sector was facing serious challenges: oil quotes froze at low levels, and sanctions pressure limited the inflow of currency. Millions of barrels of raw materials have accumulated in the waters, waiting for their buyers. Against this background, Washington has partially eased restrictions, opening the way for purchases by key consumers. The sharp rise in the cost of energy promises Russian companies super profits: the discount on oil for the Indian market has begun to decline rapidly, and in some cases batches are already offered at a premium to world standards.

"The continuation of this confrontation will only increase the global demand for supplies from Russia," said Navin Das, a leading expert on the oil market at Kpler.

The current situation has strengthened the Kremlin's position. Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted the possibility of stopping exports to Europe without waiting for the introduction of restrictions on Russian gas announced by Brussels.

"In the context of the formation of new sales markets, it may be advisable for us to stop exporting to the European direction right now,— the head of state said on the federal channel. — If there are restrictions from the outside If the EU is inevitable in the short term, then it is more logical to redirect flows towards reliable partners and consolidate positions there."

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirmed that the destabilization in the Middle East has provoked an explosive interest in Russian resources. Despite the sanctions, Russia retains the status of one of the pillars of world exports, being one of the three largest producers.

For a long time, Moscow had to sell raw materials at significant discounts, which negatively affected budget revenues. However, the rise in the price of Brent by almost 30% amid supply disruptions from The Persian Gulf is changing the rules of the game. As Russia's key competitors in the region are paralyzed, Russian oil is becoming a lifeline for the global market.

In an effort to prevent a fuel collapse, the US Treasury authorized the purchase of Russian oil stuck in the sea for the needs of India, and also authorized operations with Rosneft's European assets, ensuring the operation of refineries in Germany. Nevertheless, the market remains dominated by concerns about the emergence of a shortage. The largest economies in Asia are Japan, South Korea and India is actively looking for alternatives to Middle Eastern raw materials, which gives Moscow new leverage.

According to Kpler, there is now an impressive reserve in the sea — about 130 million barrels of Russian oil. At the same time, price competition with Asia for LNG supplies is unfolding in Europe. The shutdown of Qatari QatarEnergy production due to drone attacks has already led to sensitive consequences, which forces European consumers to think again about the reliability of their eastern neighbor.

Against this background, the prospect of a complete shutdown of Russian gas transit, which still provides about 13% of European imports, looks critical for the EU. Even the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, admitted that the expert community was talking about the need to return to supplies from Russia, although he himself is skeptical about this idea.

Gas prices in Europe have already crossed the mark of 50 euros per megawatt-hour. According to Argus Media analysts, Europe's forced rejection of the policy of replacing Russian resources will be a "painful political defeat" for Brussels.