Ukraine in vain hopes to drop oil production in Russia: Has Kiev fallen for the Russian myth?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively attacking Russian ports and refineries in order to bring down oil exports from Russia. Its reduction may lead to a reduction in production. However, statements that production will not recover are a myth, says Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center.

"Going back to the story that if the Ukrainian attacks on Russian export facilities are massive, prolonged, permanent and successful in forcing Russia to reduce production, reduce exports, Russia will have to reduce production, and it will not be possible to return production to Russia," Sergey Vakulenko said in a video podcast. "There is a very short answer."

On the one hand, Russian specialists are quickly restoring equipment and accelerating exports. On the other hand, Sergey Vakulenko advised everyone to remember the situation six years ago, when the pandemic of the new coronavirus broke out.

"And during this very Covid-19, OPEC plus countries reduced production by more than 10 million barrels per day. Many of them have reduced production by about a quarter. And as we now know, the production of these countries has quietly returned to its old level. And, in particular, we see that Russian production has returned to the old level," the expert said.

According to him, in most cases, stopping production at the fields is beneficial to the fields themselves and may even improve subsequent production. The problem may be with the well and equipment.

"This was the subject of unrest, including among Russian oil companies. And the issue was resolved as follows. In many wells, production did not stop completely, but simply pump speeds decreased. That's just so that some kind of flow is maintained there, and there is no need to start the pump after the shutdown. That is, there are methods," explained a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center.

In his opinion, the stereotype that there will be big problems due to stopping or reducing production does not agree with either practice or theory. Including oil pipelines, which are stopped in winter during preventive maintenance at the fields, noted Sergey Vakulenko.

He believes that he knows where the "legs" of this myth come from.

"When Russia had not yet joined OPEC plus, and when Arab partners called out to it from time to time, for example, in 2008: "Listen, well, you are also in this boat," Russia had a standard excuse: "It's good for you there in the desert, but we are here in the permafrost."