In Russia, they miscalculated with lithium: Rosatom and Norilsk Nickel are asking for help with money

Forecasts for lithium demand in Russia have been recalculated and they have dropped sharply. The Polar Lithium project is asking for state support in order to be cost-effective.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia has lowered the forecast of demand for lithium in the country by 2030 by 10 times — up to 10 thousand tons per year. For the joint project of Rosatom and Norilsk Nickel, Polar Lithium, this was unpleasant news.

"This is a deterioration of the project economy by three to four times compared to the initial calculations," Igor Demidov, CEO of Polar Lithium, told reporters on the sidelines of the Redmet-2026 International Congress on Rare Metals, Materials and Technologies, reports RBC.

The agency noted that initially Polar Lithium, which will develop the Kolmozerskoye deposit, focused on the production of 40-45 thousand tons, and now — on 40-45 thousand tons per year. The launch of the fishery is scheduled for 2030.

The decrease in the forecast is directly related to the development of the electric vehicle market in the country.

"State plans for the development of electric mobility in Russia's plans were a two-stage concept until 2030, adopted in August 2021. The document assumed that at the first stage (2021-2024) at least 25 thousand electric vehicles would be produced in the country, and 9.4 thousand charging stations would be launched. However, in 2024, the production of electric vehicles amounted to only 4.3 thousand units. Against this background, in March 2025 it was reported that the concept is planned to be updated, "RBC writes.

The head of Polar Lithium noted that there is also a question of potential competition between projects for the domestic market. Except A joint venture of Rosatom and Norilsk Nickel, Arctic Lithium and Elbrusmetall-Lithium are engaged in lithium. Also, Gazprom and Irkutsk Oil Company (Inc.) is engaged in the development of lithium production from reservoir brines at the Kovyktinskoye gas condensate field.

In this situation, Polar Lithium is counting on state support.

"We undertake to actively work out state support measures, including subsidizing the construction of infrastructure facilities — 150 km of highways and 150 km of power transmission lines, and support in subsidizing the interest rate when attracting financing. These measures will make it possible to bring the project to a plus and actively develop it," Igor Demidov said.

At the same time, the main volumes The joint venture plans to ship for export after all. The company considers the volume of production of "Polar lithium" in 40-50 thousand tons to be in market demand.

"When we started, the world consumption of lithium products was planned to be about 300 thousand tons by 2025, but in fact consumption exceeded 1.5 million tons. And this suggests that the forecasts were wrong for the better," said the head of Polar Lithium.

According to him, the company considers current prices of $ 22-25 thousand per ton to be comfortable.

RBC cites the opinion of experts who consider the demand forecast in Russia's 10 thousand tons per year is realistic.

"Exports are becoming a key factor in survival, but sanctions restrictions are narrowing sales markets to China, India and Turkey, where competition with Australian, Chilean and Chinese manufacturers is extremely tough, Shaposhnikov is convinced. The only stable driver remains the state program of electrification of transport and industrial SNES," Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the managing director of the Industrial Code Fund, told the agency.

"Strictly speaking, it has always been clear that the project (Polar Lithium) is for export. I don't know what 100 thousand tons per year of domestic demand could be expected, because even two gigafactories of Rosatom need about 5 thousand tons per year. And their capacity, in turn, covers even the projected demand for batteries with a margin. And there are also other projects — Arctic Lithium, as well as projects to extract lithium from associated waters of oil and gas production," expert Alexander Sobko writes in the telegram channel.

In his opinion, all Russian mining projects began to develop for export and rather on the hype even during the "lithium bubble".

"Now lithium prices are not at the highest (low prices), but at the level of 20 + thousand dollars per ton of lithium carbonate. These are rather very reasonable prices for the global industry as a whole, and the Russian industry in particular — but cost control is needed. Obviously, it will no longer be possible to "ride" on a lithium bubble and get super profits without really bothering about the cost," the expert adds.