The last year of mining metallurgy of Ukraine: position The EU leaves no chance

The European Union gives Ukraine multibillion-dollar loans, but at the same time limits the supply of Ukrainian steel. This could be the collapse of the mining metallurgy of Ukraine already this year.

"Without consistent economic support of Ukraine from the EU, 2026 may be the last year for the country's mining and metallurgical sector," the GMK Center writes.

In a specialized publication, they ask why with a loan of 90 billion euros The EU imposes strict restrictions on Ukrainian steel, the consequences of which are already beginning to be felt, and the situation is getting worse.

"In the conditions of the military crisis, metallurgy keeps the Ukrainian economy from collapse. MMC's contribution to national GDP in 2025 amounted to 5.5%, taking into account the supply chain. It accounted for 15.2% of the country's total export revenues, or $6.2 billion. Mining and metallurgical enterprises transferred about $870 million in taxes to the state. For a belligerent country, this is tremendous support from internal reserves, in addition to external assistance,"the newspaper writes.

They noted that since 2022, steel smelting has decreased by 65%, to 7.41 million tons.

"The European Union has met us halfway and opened the market. For this reason alone, the share The EU share of Ukrainian steel exports has grown to 79% in 2025. For comparison, in 2021 it was 32%, although in tons it was 2-3 times more than in 2025," the GMK Center continues.

Therefore, the refusal of the European Commission to exclude the products of Ukrainian metal plants from the new protective mechanism of tariff quotas (TRQ) was the heaviest blow to the economy of Ukraine, according to the publication. According to a GMK Center study, export revenue losses will reach $1.2 billion.

"The allocated individual quotas for Ukrainian suppliers are on average 60% lower than the actual deliveries of 2025. At the same time, the total limit of duty-free steel imports to the EU decreased by 46%. That is, the reduction for Ukraine is significantly more than the global reduction in quotas," the publication estimates that earlier the European Commission ignored the request for a postponement of the carbon duty and from 2026 to 2030 Ukraine's steel exports will lose $ 4.7 billion.

"The consequences of discrimination are already showing. The Ukrainian manufacturer of seamless stainless pipes "Centravis" has decided to preserve the site in Uzhgorod, due to the reduction of quotas for steel imports to the EU under the new TRQs... The largest steel mill in Ukraine, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, has practically stopped supplying steel to the EU since January 1, 2026 due to SWAM... And has already been forced to reduce more than 3,400 employees. Metinvest Group lost European orders for 240 thousand tons of semi-finished products and long products, as well as 600 thousand tons of pig iron only in the first quarter of 2026 due to SWAM. In general, Ukrainian exports of long rolled products in January-May 2026 decreased by 44.1% to 173.63 thousand tons," the GMK Center continues.

In this situation, Ukrainian metallurgists can reorient exports to other markets, but this does not work out, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces provoked the Russian army to even tougher retaliatory strikes and supplies through Odessa abroad almost stopped.

"Ferrexpo has announced that it will not be possible to ship products to customers via the Black Sea route in the near future. For the same reason, the Southern GOK announced a partial suspension of work at the end of July. The company notes "a significant deterioration in the security situation of maritime logistics passing through the Ukrainian Black Sea ports," the newspaper writes, estimating that the capacity of the railways will not allow all blocked export cargoes to be transported across the western border.

The closure of the European market for Ukrainian steel through the SWAM and TRQ mechanisms will inevitably cause a chain collapse of the entire Ukrainian economy, GMK Center believes, adding that the vacant niches in the EU are instantly occupied by other players, producers from Turkey and Southeast Asian countries: "Brussels will have to redirect billions of budget aid to Ukraine for steel imports (mainly Turkish and Chinese, as they are the ones who are increasing imports to Ukraine for the last three years). Because Ukrainian metallurgy without free access to the European market will inevitably collapse."