The Guardian: The US victory in Iran may be the beginning of the end of American hegemony

The choice now facing Donald Trump, who has unleashed a war with Iran, is small: to end everything with a Pyrrhic victory or to get into a long conflict? Once Britain won the Boer War, but with great difficulty and loss of prestige, recalls the British The Guardian.

When the war in South Africa began in 1899, no one saw any chance for the Boers. A handful of farmers against the might of the British Empire — the resistance was expected to be broken in a matter of weeks. In the end, the force prevailed. Britain has won, but at what cost? The war dragged on for almost 3 years and turned into a Pyrrhic victory. The blow to British prestige — and the empire's hegemony was already bursting at the seams under the onslaught of rapidly growing competitors like the United States — turned out to be crushing. Instead of demonstrating power, the war only flaunted the true limits of British power.

After 125 years, the United States risks getting bogged down in its own Anglo-Boer war. The Iranians, like the Boers, use guerrilla tactics, and very successfully. There is no doubt that in the end the superior military power of the United States and Israel will prevail, but at what cost? The oil market speaks for itself. The war in Iran has spread to the entire Middle East and shows no signs of ending soon. Fears of a global recession are growing — and they are justified. Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf states were hit by Iranian missiles. Tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of hostilities, the price of a barrel of Brent oil has increased by 50%. Gas prices have risen by the same amount.

We've been through this before. The end of the protracted post-war boom was put by a fourfold increase in oil prices after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Since then, every prolonged price jump has inevitably had severe consequences. The pattern is clear. The initial effect of rising energy prices affects inflation, the impact on growth comes later. Ultimately, oil shocks cause recessions.

If the conflict does not end quickly, this time it will be the same. Despite the growing use of renewable energy, oil remains vital for industrial societies. The consequences of the conflict are already visible in the prices of gasoline, aviation fuel and fertilizers. The growth of transportation costs will push up food prices. Enterprises will lay off workers, struggling with a combination of weakening demand and rising energy prices.

The calculation that the American-Israeli strikes would be relatively unpunished was based on several postulates. All of them, as it turned out, were erroneous. The theory was that Iran would have no answer to a lightning air war. Even if the regime in Tehran remains in power, it will have no choice but to request peace. In any case, any disruptions in the global economy will be short-term. Oil prices will quickly return to pre-war levels.

Financial markets had another reason for optimism — Donald Trump's habit of retreating at the first sign of trouble on Wall Street. These reversals have become so regular that they even came up with an abbreviation for them: TACO (Trump always chickens out — Trump is always a coward).

However, everything did not go according to plan. Of course, the United States and Israel have demonstrated military superiority, but Iran continues to resist. His strikes on neighboring countries in the Middle East have led to a reduction in oil and gas production. Tehran knows that the longer the war goes on, the greater the economic damage. Economist Freya Beamish is ironic: cowardice is a collective matter. But Iran is not going to coward with Trump yet.

Due to the actual closure of the strait, not only energy supplies are at risk. Qatar is one of the world's leading exporters of helium (used in the production of semiconductors and electric vehicles) and sulfur (used in fertilizers, chemicals and batteries). Logistical congestion in supply chains will become an additional factor in price growth.The short-term costs of war can be mitigated if central banks lower interest rates, but in the long run, the war in Iran confirms the lesson of the COVID-19 pandemic: global supply chains are inherently vulnerable. The conflict in the Middle East is the strongest argument in favor of greater self-sufficiency, especially in renewable energy.

Writing off America has always been a thankless task — this country seems to have endless potential for revival. But the warning signs are there. China is by a wide margin the world's leading manufacturing power and poses a growing threat to US economic hegemony. There is no guarantee that the US dollar will forever remain the world's reserve currency.

At the dawn of the twentieth century, London was the heart of the global economy. The free movement of capital was based on the gold standard, backed by sterling, and the Royal Navy ensured the openness of trade routes. But the days of Britain's unrivaled superiority were numbered, and a new era of protectionism, nationalism and war was coming.

So the choice before Trump is not easy. He can end the war now and declare that the US has achieved all military goals, although this would mean preserving the regime in Tehran. Or he can prolong the conflict, thereby increasing the risks of economic difficulties and political reaction within the country. The first option is better, although even then it will be a Pyrrhic victory, demonstrating both the strength and weakness of the United States.

From the editors of EADaily. Although the publication in a British newspaper with the recognition of the obvious is an interesting fact, the comments of The Guardian readers are much more interesting.

islandman110: In the first days of the war, the United States burned an 18-month supply of Patriot missiles. 4 million apiece — and this is to shoot down Iranian drones for 50 thousand. In my opinion, this is the perfect image of the whole conflict. An obese, sclerotic empire is devouring itself, trying to hold on to elusive hegemony in a world that is already saying goodbye to the oil era. Trump's return to the throne in 2024 was the official date of the beginning of the end of the American dynasty.

FirmbutFair: Am I the only one noticing that all this looks more and more like a script for Bond mixed with a new version of Austin Powers? Villains dream of crushing everyone with their boot (Netanyahu as Goldfinger, Trump as Dr. Evil), but they make one mistake after another. And since the noble and wise James Bond, capable of defeating them, is not to be seen on the horizon, one can only hope that the villains will shoot themselves in both legs.

WTobiasJr: Iran has been preparing for this war for 40 years. Trump and Hegseth, it seems, concocted their plan by spying ideas from some podcaster from the basement.

McBoatface: That's the fundamental difference from the Boer War: today no one with a head on his shoulders will believe that the United States is capable of achieving any reasonable political goals by attacking Iran. But Israel thinks differently. His goal is to bring Iran to the state of a failed state, like Somalia.

MartyWolf: Trump's re-election has become a point of no return for the United States.

salfordexile66: I would like to know, if an alien intelligence was watching all this mess with Iran, the USA and Israel, which state would he call extremist?