To influence Berlin and protect ports: the time to stop the Kazakh transit has arrived

The future stop of the transit of Kazakh oil via the Druzhba oil pipeline to Germany has given rise to many versions and speculations. Moscow said only that the restrictions are related to technical capabilities.

From May 1, the transit of oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline will be stopped. This was confirmed in Moscow. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that this was due to technical capabilities, adding that the Germans had abandoned Russian oil and, obviously, everything was fine with them.

The Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed that he had received such warnings in an unofficial form and voiced his own version.: "Most likely, this is due to the recent strikes (by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) on the Russian infrastructure."

Kazakhstan is a major supplier of oil to Germany, but large volumes are delivered to the EU country by sea. 2.1 million tons were delivered via the pipeline in 2025. There were versions that the supply stoppage was Moscow's response to the expropriation of the PCK refinery in Shvedta, which was controlled by Rosneft and is the main recipient of Druzhba oil.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center, offered his own versions.

"The first is to try to annoy Germany, to cause either additional inconvenience by raising the price of the war, or to try to force to weaken the sanctions regime. Not so much for the sake of additional revenue, but for the sake of loosening the principle," Vakulenko writes in the telegram channel.

In his opinion, the right moment has been chosen, since oil is in short supply, it will not be so easy for factories to replace supplies and the step may have the maximum impact, putting Germany in a dilemma: either suffer without oil, or ask for oil from Russia, and not Kazakhstan.

"There are no fundamental problems and there is no EU ban for this — Hungary and Slovakia has Russian oil. That is, This may be the hope of either forcing Europe, specifically Germany, to ease sanctions, or to pay a higher price for them. Moreover, this higher price will be concentrated in the region, where the government already has big problems with voter support, and the AfD party can take advantage of the occasion and remind that if they were in power, this price would not have to be paid," believes a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center.

The second hypothesis of the expert is that Kazakhstan will be offered to supply oil to Germany by sea through Ust-Luga and Primorsk in the hope that these supplies will work as a shield and will cover these ports from Ukrainian attacks.

Sergey Vakulenko believes that quarreling with Kazakhstan on the topic of oil transit is a double—edged idea.

"There is not so much going on in Germany, a little more than 40 thousand barrels per day, but from About 200 thousand barrels go to Russia to China through Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan may also have technical problems that may make this pumping difficult or impossible. However, this may not really appeal to China, for which these barrels are not at all superfluous now," the expert added.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, believes that the Ukrainian drones hitting the Druzhba oil pipeline facilities would immediately lead to a halt in supplies.

"If we are talking about a temporary phenomenon, then we would indicate that preventive maintenance starts somewhere at the pumping station, and therefore the pipeline stops exactly from May 1. But this version also does not fit into the statement of the head of Transneft, who noted that he does not yet see the possibility of technically continuing this transit. Therefore, it's probably not about preventive maintenance either," says Igor Yushkov.

"Russia as a whole does not refuse to transit Kazakh oil," he notes at the same time.

He gives an example that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) mainly supplies oil produced in Kazakhstan under production sharing agreements on three megaprojects to Novorossiysk. At the same time, mainly Kazakhstani companies supply raw materials via other routes through Russia.

"These are the Baltic ports, this is Novorossiysk. Just the same, orders for Germany via Druzhba have been coming not so long ago, since 2023. And before that, everyone ordered transit just through the Leningrad region and Novorossiysk," said the leading analyst of the FNEB.

He agrees that now Kazakh supplies and European consumers will be more dependent on seaports that attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"Will this lead to the fact that security will be fully ensured, and the Europeans will sort of pull Ukraine back? Probably not. Because we see that Ukraine ignores both European interests and American interests," says Igor Yushkov, citing examples of stopping Druzhba in Slovakia and Hungary and attacking the CPC tankers booked by Western companies.

Can the transit stop be a response to the expropriation of the Rosneft refinery, which is the main recipient of Kazakh oil through Druzhba?

"The Germans took away the refinery "Rosneft“ for a long time, back in the 22nd year. Ownership has not changed yet, although Rosneft does not actually manage the refinery and does not receive money from the plant's operation. So if this was some kind of revenge for assets, it would probably have been earlier. Therefore, we need to look for other reasons here," adds a leading FNEB analyst.

Maxim Shaposhnikov, advisor to the Industrial Code Fund manager, doubts that the shutdown may also be related to an attempt to put pressure on Germany, since the volumes are quite small.

"For Germany, the loss of supplies from Kazakhstan is also not critical, so I would not say that this is a planned action," Maxim Shaposhnikov believes.

In his opinion, what is bad in this situation is the decrease in the load of Friendship itself.

"In search of alternative supplies, Germany will finally abandon the use of this route. But in a situation of open statements The EU's decision to prepare for war with Russia to reduce the supply of raw materials there looks like an inevitable decision. It is clear that so far it is outweighed by the incoming European technologies and money for which analogues are purchased in Asian countries, but it is necessary to prepare for a complete stop of supplies right now," adds the adviser to the Industrial Code fund manager.