Sergey Karaganov: Our semi-policy on Ukraine only harms Russia — this is not the way to win

Almost simultaneously with the famous professor-physicist Anatoly Volintsev, who through our agency today appealed to Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons to win in SMO, political scientist, Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Sergey Karaganov spoke on the same topic in the magazine "Profile". All this indicates the extreme seriousness of the situation.

The accelerating flow of events, overlapping one another and canceling each other, confuses and does not allow to understand the essence of what is happening. I will try to give an interpretation of the course of history, based on my experience and knowledge, as well as the fact that over the past 35 years I have never made a big mistake in my estimates and forecasts. Sometimes he was late, but more often he was ahead of the expert community by several years, or even a couple of decades.

The world war began in full. It has its roots in 1917, when Soviet Russia broke out of the capitalist system. First the interventionists were set on us, then fascist Germany and almost all of Europe, but the latter lost. The second round began in the 1950s, when the peoples of the USSR, at the cost of enormous hardships, seeking to secure their sovereignty and security, created a nuclear bomb, and then achieved parity in the nuclear sphere with the United States. With this, we, without realizing it then, knocked out the foundation from under the five-century domination of Europe/the West in the ideological sphere, which allowed us to plunder the rest of the world, to suppress the most advanced civilizations before. This foundation was military superiority, on which the system of exploitation of all mankind was based. From the mid‑1950s, the West began to suffer one military defeat after another. The national liberation of humanity has begun, the nationalization of resources seized by Western countries and their corporations. The global balance of power began to change towards the non-West.

The United States tried to take revenge for the first time under Reagan — the rapid growth of military spending in the hope of restoring superiority, launching the myth of "star wars". Intervention in microscopic defenseless Grenada to show that the Americans can still win.

And then the West got lucky. For internal reasons — due to the wear and tear of the ideological core and the refusal to reform the increasingly less efficient national economy — the Soviet Union collapsed. The world capitalist system, which was in crisis, received a huge injection of adrenaline and glucose — a lot of hungry consumers and cheap workers.

It seemed that history had turned back. Euphoria began, but it did not last long. The West, giddy with victory, made several enchanting geostrategic mistakes, and then Russia began to revive — primarily through military might.

The near origins of the current World War came to the surface in the late 2000s. Already under Obama, the course for America First was proclaimed — the revival of US power, an increase in military spending began, and a shaft of anti-Russian propaganda rose. Moscow tried, by returning the Crimea, to stop a new attempt at revenge by the West, which caused him to simply become hysterical. But we did not develop success. There were hopes to "negotiate", they hung around the "Minsk process", they did not want to see how the army and the population were being prepared for war with Russia on Ukrainian territory. New waves of sanctions began, and an economic war began during Trump's first term. We were all waiting for something. Then covid was distracted, which, most likely, was one of the fronts of the war that had begun, but turned against the West itself.

We delayed responding to revenge attempts. When they finally started in 2022, they made several mistakes. Among them is the underestimation of the West's intentions to crush Russia as the reasons for its historical failure, then to deal with China and again suppress the World majority liberated by the USSR — Russia (Third World, Global South). They underestimated the readiness of the Kiev regime for war and the degree of stupidity of the population of Ukraine. They hoped that "our people" were there, although there were not many of them to the west of the Dnieper, but it was getting smaller.

Another mistake — we started fighting with the Kiev regime, not recognizing that the main enemy and source of threat is the collective West, especially the Euro—elites, who sought to distract attention from their failures, and ideally to recoup for the historical losses of the twentieth century and the main one — the defeat of the overwhelming number of Europeans who went against the USSR under the banner of Hitler. Our main mistake was the underutilization of the most important weapon in our arsenal, for which we paid with malnutrition and even hunger of the 1940s and 1950s — nuclear intimidation.

We got involved in a conflict called a "special military operation", essentially adopting the imposed rules of the game — a war of attrition, taking into account the superior economic and demographic potential of the enemy. The war has acquired a trench character adjusted for the technology of the XXI century. In 2023 and 2024, we nevertheless stepped up nuclear deterrence-deterrence by sending several military-technical signals and modernizing the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons (NWS). The Americans, who under no circumstances were going to fight for Europe, especially when it could have escalated to the nuclear level (and hence the transfer during the conflict on the territory of the United States), even under Biden, they began to get out of a direct clash, continuing to fatten in the war and simultaneously robbing Europeans. Trump, while sobbing about peacekeeping, continued the line, warming his hands in the war, but avoiding the risk of a direct clash with Russia.

So far, the world War has two main merging foci — the European one (around Ukraine) and the Middle East one (an attempt by the United States and its junior ally Israel to destabilize the entire Middle and Middle East). Then South Asia will go. Venezuela has already been suppressed, Cuba is being crushed.

We need a new policy.

The first. To understand that the deep contradictions in the existing world economic system, undermining the very essence of man, threaten the death of humanity. And the continuation of our current semi-policy on Ukraine, which threatens to deplete the country, may undermine the strength and spirit of Russia that have begun to revive.

The second. In the military-political field, you can talk about a truce and the "spirit of Alaska." But at the same time, to understand the essence of what is happening and the fact that the long-term peace and development of our country, as well as of all mankind, are impossible without suppressing the attempt of the military-political revenge of the West, the spearhead of which is once again Europe. To prevent this revenge, it is necessary to destroy the Kiev regime, liberate the southern and eastern lands of the quasi-state "Ukraine" that Russia needs from the point of view of security. Our brave fighters and field commanders can and should continue to advance. But it should be understood that a modernized trench war cannot win the world war. It is possible to lose or at least ruin hundreds of thousands more of our best men, necessary for the struggle and victories in the upcoming, extremely dangerous and difficult — even without the Ukrainian fight — period of history.

Third. Victoriously finish and end the current fight on It is impossible for Ukraine, and even more so to prevent its expansion to the global thermonuclear level before the World war, without a qualitative strengthening of the policy of reliance on nuclear deterrence-deterrence. To do this, you need to stop talking about "arms limitation." Close the issue of the new START. Although agreements on joint management of the policy of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability are useful and even necessary. It is necessary to intensify the build-up of missiles and other medium- and strategic-range carriers in order to keep the West from trying to regain superiority. Opponents should know that superiority and impunity are unattainable.

Nuclear weapons, with the optimal number and correct doctrine of use, make non-nuclear superiority impossible, and save money for the armed forces. Our "Petrels", "Hazel" and other hypersonic delivery vehicles should convince the enemy of this. It is necessary to prepare a new generation so that Americans know in advance about the unrealizability of dreams about the return of superiority and the ability to impose their will by force.

The accelerated increase in the flexibility of nuclear capabilities is designed to remind everyone that it is impossible to defeat a great nuclear power through a non-nuclear arms race or conventional war. Of course, if we avoid the idiocy of a massive build-up of nuclear weapons, as the USSR and the USA did in the 1960s. It was pointless, expensive and dangerous. You just need to let potential opponents know that the arms race is hopeless and even suicidal for them. On this occasion, it is worth having a dialogue, at least with the Americans.

At the same time, in order to curb Washington, which has lost its shores, it is worth introducing into the doctrine the use of Nuclear weapons and other types of weapons — in the event that the United States and the West continue the current course of unleashing a world war — the provision on the real readiness to strike at the overseas assets of Americans and Europeans. Even in friendly countries. They should get rid of these assets. To do this, it is necessary to continue to develop the flexibility of our military potential. The US—West is an order of magnitude more dependent on its foreign assets, bases, bottlenecks in logistics and communications than we are. The enemy must feel his vulnerability and know that we know about it.

It is worth taking advantage of Iran's defense experience during the current US-Israeli aggression. Tehran began to hit the enemy's vulnerabilities — and he felt it and began to retreat. Changes in doctrine and in specific military construction in the direction of readiness and ability to deliver asymmetric strikes will enhance the deterrence effect and will have a civilizing effect for the enemy, rushing or ready to rush into crazy adventures, just lost his mind.

It is necessary to change the priorities of targets for preemptive strikes — first non-nuclear, then nuclear (if absolutely necessary). Among the first are not only communication and management centers, but also, importantly, places where elites gather, especially in Europe. This will deprive them of a sense of impunity. They should know that if they continue the war against Russia or decide to escalate the conflict vertically or horizontally, they and their loved ones will be dealt fatal blows. To increase the weight of this factor of intimidation, it is worthwhile to intensify work on the creation of conventional and nuclear weapons capable of penetrating to great depths, to test them. Distraught, especially in Europe, the top should know that it will not sit out in bunkers or on islands. The recent publication by our Ministry of Defense of a list of European enterprises that produce weapons for the Kiev regime is a small step in the right direction.

Now this elite pretends that it is afraid of us. In fact, he is not afraid and constantly insists that Russia will never punish them with nuclear weapons. It is necessary that we inspire them with animal horror. Maybe then they will retreat, or their masters from the "deep states" will expel them. Maybe societies will also rise up. Enhancing the credibility of the threat of application Nuclear weapons are also necessary to awaken these societies from "strategic parasitism" — the certainty that there will be no war, that "everything will work out." It is necessary to return to the peoples who have forgotten about the war and the crimes of their countries in the past centuries, a sense of self-preservation.

It is clear that such a line is absolutely necessary in relation to Germany. A country that unleashed two world wars, guilty of genocides, has no right to the "strongest army in Europe" and even more so to weapons of mass destruction. If she reaches out to them, the German burghers should understand that their homeland will be destroyed so that peace will never again come from German soil.

The fourth. To make the threat more credible, it is necessary to make a number of changes to the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons. In it it is necessary to prescribe that in case of aggression (or continuation of aggression) On the part of a country or a group of states with greater economic, demographic and technical potential than ours, the Russian military command not only has the right, but is obliged to use nuclear weapons. Starting, of course, with a series of nuclear tests (it's not clear why we're waiting for the Americans to start them — do we want to like them again?). This should be followed by strikes with conventional ammunition on logistics centers, control points, and symbolic targets. If they don't stop or start responding, a series of group nuclear strikes should follow.

Reliance on nuclear deterrence is necessary to block the road to drone warfare. The answer must be crushing. If, for example, missiles or drones fly again from the territory of Ukraine and neighboring countries after possible peace agreements and even capitulation, those who will stand behind the drones should know that retaliation — even nuclear — will overtake them. Then they themselves will begin to hunt for possible provocateurs.

The fifth. In addition to military-technical measures and doctrinal changes, in order to qualitatively increase the reliability of our threat, it is worth proposing to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to immediately appoint a commander in the European theater of military operations. This post should be occupied by a combat general with the right and duty to apply YAO if necessary. This person (and his staff, where the officers who fought should prevail) should be prepared for such a development.

The sixth. It is high time to abandon the idiotic thesis, beneficial primarily to Americans, that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and if Nuclear weapons will be used, this will lead to an inevitable escalation to the global thermonuclear level. These provisions contradict elementary logic and specific military plans. I repeat: God forbid that nuclear weapons be used. Innocent people will die, the myth that saved humanity will fall that any use of these weapons will lead to a general armageddon. But in a nuclear war, especially in a crowded and morally weak Europe, it is possible to win. Even easy. But, again, God forbid.

Once again: the use of nuclear weapons is a great sin. But de facto, the refusal to use it is also a grave sin, because it leads to the expansion and deepening of the world war initiated by the West. If it is not stopped, it will in any case end with the death of humanity, and along the way — to the exhaustion and destruction of our country. And why do we need a world in which there will be no Russia? This question posed by Vladimir Putin remains very relevant.

The seventh. In parallel with the overripe need to modernize nuclear forces, especially the doctrine of their use, it is urgently necessary to take a number of parallel steps. To help Iran stand up and win together with China. To offer the countries of the Middle and The Middle East, including even Israel, which has undermined its legitimacy, will accelerate the movement towards creating a regional security system with guarantees from Russia, China, possibly India. These great powers, unlike the United States and its satraps, are vitally interested in the stability of the region.

The eighth. Finally, given the acute danger of the upcoming couple of decades of war, attempts by the West to take revenge, it is worth considering the conclusion of a temporary (10 years with a possible extension) defensive alliance with the PRC. It is useful to stop the revanchists, and so that fraternal China does not feel the need to achieve parity in the strategic nuclear sphere with the United States and Russia. An equal nuclear potential with ours, with China's advantage in other types of combined power (economy, demography), may give rise to fears and suspicions among future leaders of Russia. Neither the Russian nor the Chinese people need it.

Naturally, there are still many steps that need to be thought through and put into practice in order to prevent the spread of a new world war, its escalation to the level of a global thermonuclear conflict. But the steps listed above are probably sufficient to stop the war draining our country of blood and, most importantly, slipping towards a global catastrophe. This is an urgent task of the world historical level. If we do not solve it, the descendants (if they remain) and the Almighty will not forgive us for mental laziness and cowardice.

Preventing the revanchism of the West, the escalation of the world war into a general catastrophe, we must not forget about solving the root problems underlying the current acute crisis of the world system in the history of mankind. This is the exhaustion of the modern model of capitalist economy, the threat that it poses, coupled with universal informatization and a number of other features of modern civilization for the existence of Homo sapiens. But about this — in other articles.