Energy market for a week: IEA sobered Europe with gas

The Iranian war continues to rock the price of oil. However, gas is getting more expensive even faster. Already and in The International Energy Agency noticed that the countries The EU is pumping gas into storage facilities too slowly, while there will be no excess fuel. This was a signal to the market.

Oil

Oil does not stand still for a week. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent from Friday to Friday this time rose from $ 101.3 to $ 109.3 per barrel.

"The tone between the US and Iran has once again become much more confrontational. So far, the truce has been maintained, but hopes for a quick opening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded," Commerzbank analysts said.

Iran "does not trust" the United States and is interested in negotiations with Washington only if it is serious, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said. In turn, Donald Trump said that patience with Iran is running out, and that he agreed with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Iran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and should reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"The market's attention is once again focused on the deadlock and blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, with the risk of renewed military escalation," Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told Reuters.

Meanwhile, the passage of tankers and other vessels through Hormuz has increased to 30, but still not comparable to the pre-war period of 140 ships a day.

"Oil is rising due to the combination of the Trump—Xi meeting, which contributed little to the approach to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen added.

Gas

Gas has not been so expensive in Europe for a long time. It jumped above $600. During the week, deliveries for a month in advance from the TTF exchange went up from $ 542 to $ 620 per thousand cubic meters.

The situation with gas has not changed dramatically for Europe. Countries The EU is still slowly pumping gas and is already lagging behind the pace of last year, when stocks were much higher after the winter. But the trigger could be the report of the International Energy Agency. IEA experts said that the pace of recovery of reserves is insufficient and that the Middle East crisis will significantly reduce gas supplies. The market will lose about 15% due to the suspension of exports from Qatar and the UAE.

The IEA believes that in two months the losses have already amounted to 20 billion cubic meters.

Against this background, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said that the United States could become the largest gas supplier to the European Union this year, surpassing Norway. In other words, the EU has fallen into one dependence, while it has not yet completely abandoned Russian gas. Deliveries of Russian liquefied natural gas continue at the maximum level, despite the first restrictions since the end of April.

Logically, coal has also risen in price this week. Month-ahead deliveries from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) increased over the week from $107.1 per ton to $115.9.