The situation in the south of Russia is developing in a threatening way due to the attacks of the AFU - TC "Rybar"

In the southern regions of Russia, the situation is developing in an increasingly threatening way due to regular strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Logistics problems are deeper than they seem: for the time being, moving along roads close to the front (and there is no more rear) will become a lottery. The Z-blogger of the Rybar telegram channel drew attention to this.

"In the southern regions of Russia, the situation is developing in an increasingly threatening way. Since the beginning of May, Ukrainian formations have significantly increased the number of drone strikes on vehicles carrying various cargoes to Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and Crimea. There is a threat of a shortage of some goods on the peninsula, and fuel is sold with restrictions,"Rybar writes.

He notes that the threat is not only the disruption of the holiday season in the Crimea or the shortage of certain products on the peninsula.

"Strikes on cargo carriers on the peninsula directly affect the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is not cloudless," he emphasizes.

In this regard, Z-blogger makes a forecast:

"Taking into account the fact that the Ukrainian formations have already partially paralyzed the logistics of the south of Russia in the land corridor in Crimea, it is not difficult to imagine what will happen if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can break through the defense The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the Kamenskoye— Shcherbaki turn."

"Rybar" explains that then the command The Russian Armed Forces will have to transfer reinforcements on the way to the conditional Vasilyevka, the roads to which are already under frequent enemy attacks. In the case of the most negative development of the situation, in order to stabilize the situation, it will be necessary to transfer additional forces along the routes through the conditional Tokmak and more distant Berdyansk and Mariupol.

"And just for them, even the delivery of civilian goods has been severely disrupted right now," the military correspondent states.

"What to do about it? The issue of the organization of the air defense of the "small sky" is clear and studied. And also voiced at the highest level. The avalanche-like increase in the number of attacks after the May holidays is noticeable to the naked eye, although the roads were not safe before them. Just by the beginning of May, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tested the Hornet, and after the truce they began to use it massively, without giving a break to develop counteraction tactics,"Rybar analyzes the situation.

In his opinion, "for the time being, traveling along roads close to the front (and there is no more rear) will become a lottery."

"And the sooner this understanding comes, the sooner, we hope, appropriate organizational decisions will be made to protect logistics from drones," writes Z—blogger, whose post is duplicated in his telegram channel "Two Majors".

For clarity of understanding of the emerging perspective, "Rybar" indicates what is happening at the front:

-In the Kamenskoye area, the enemy has been attacking for a long time and was able to advance in several areas, pushing back Russian troops: Stepnogorsk and Plavni, as well as almost all territorial acquisitions achieved The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the offensive, which began in early 2025.

- There is a risk that the enemy will not only restore the status quo, but will also begin to attack on the Kamenskoye—Shcherbaki line. Indirect signs indicate that attention has been paid to the problems at this site, but the situation remains difficult.

-The activity of Ukrainian drone guides in strikes on Kamenka-Dneprovskaya, Vodiane and Energodar. Every 20-30 minutes, local public sites report drone attacks in the city, which count by dozens. There are dead and injured among the local population. Employees of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant are also becoming targets, as officially reported by the company's resources.

"This may indicate that the enemy is preparing, if not a full-fledged landing, then a diversionary strike through the reeds at the bottom of the former Kakhovsky reservoir."

"It is impossible to allow the loss of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant: knocking out even small enemy groups from there will be an extremely difficult task. In addition, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be very constrained in the means of destruction, since the NPP is not the object that should be subjected to air strikes," concludes Rybar.

In turn, the authors of the TC "Two Majors" in their morning summary separately note "the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to block the logistics of the southern land corridor through the Zaporozhye region: heavy trucks and everything that slightly resembles military vehicles are under attack."

"Defense Minister Andrei Belousov during his visit to GdV Vostok paid special attention to ensuring the protection of the sky," the Z-bloggers point out.