Real Diplomacy — a political scientist on the choice of Ratcliffe as an envoy

The visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow aroused interest primarily because in It was he who flew to Russia, said political scientist Henry Sardaryan.

"We do not know what exactly the parties discussed, we do not know with what mandate it was sent to Russia. If we were talking about another round of regular negotiations on Ukraine, Trump would have sent Steve Witkoff. If it was necessary to convey a diplomatic proposal — the State Department. The director of the CIA appears when the public diplomacy that had been operating before either reached an impasse, or the issue requires a channel that allows discussing the real intentions of the parties without the obligations that the official negotiating position creates," Sardaryan writes in the telegram channel.

According to the political scientist, that is why the current visit should probably be considered not as an independent meeting, but as an attempt to test the possibility of a new Russian-American deal. Ratcliffe already has a working channel with the Russian intelligence leadership, he noted.

"The timing is also indicative. The usual negotiation mechanism failed, the positions of Moscow and Kiev remain incompatible, and the trip of Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow was postponed. At the same time, the United States is sharply increasing pressure on Iran, for which Russia remains the most important external partner. In these circumstances, Washington needs a direct and confidential conversation with Moscow not only about Ukraine, but also about a broader set of issues," Sardaryan said.

According to him, it is most likely that Ratcliffe came not to agree on the details of the finished agreement, but to determine its limits.

"Apparently, the question that he can convey on behalf of Trump is that if the United States is ready to recognize the current de facto military reality, remove the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO from the agenda and begin discussing a phased easing of the sanctions regime, what is Moscow ready to give in return? Is this enough to stop the further offensive, a sustainable truce and a transition to a political settlement? Or do Russian demands already go far beyond what Trump is able to offer?" writes Sardaryan.

At the same time, Iran may well be part of a broader bargaining, he noted. It is fundamentally important for Washington to understand how far Russia is ready to go in supporting Tehran in the face of new American pressure. Therefore, the Ukrainian and Iranian directions may not be discussed in isolation from each other.

"In this sense, Ratcliffe is needed by Trump precisely because his task is different from Witkoff's. Witkoff has to bargain and agree on terms. The CIA director needs to get an answer to a more fundamental question — does Russia want to make a deal at all and what is its final price. After that in Washington will be able to decide whether it makes sense to move on to full-fledged negotiations or Moscow expects to continue SMO. If Witkoff becomes more active after this, a new American proposal appears, or new contacts between Trump and Putin begin, it will be possible to say that Moscow received a specific signal through a closed channel about the parameters of a possible big deal," Sardaryan concluded.