Energy market for a week: Russian oil went in big demand — there is no extra

Oil and gas prices zigzagged. And they are completely dependent now on statements and events in The Strait of Hormuz. Everyone is waiting for negotiations in Islamabad. However, the creeping rise in oil, gas and coal prices has begun again. There is not enough free oil on the market and, for example, China and India has started competing for Russian oil.

Oil

Prices continue to jump around $100. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent from Friday to Friday increased from $ 90 to $ 105.3 per barrel. At the same time, physical supplies of raw materials, including Russian, are sold at a premium.

Oil prices continue to be in a fever due to the uncertainty in the Iranian war and the information war that both sides have staged. Some — to bring down prices. Others — to raise.

So, on Thursday, Iran published a video showing commandos boarding a cargo ship in The Strait of Hormuz. Next, Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the United States. At the same time, CNN reported that US President Donald Trump is sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister.

"The malfunction of the Strait of Hormuz has created a complex logistical problem that will take time to solve… It will take weeks to eliminate this congestion, since ships will pass through ports that operate themselves in conditions of limited resources," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

Tamas Varga of oil brokerage PVM believes that traders are liquidating long positions ahead of an unusually unpredictable weekend and will adjust their positions on Sunday evening depending on developments in Iran.

"Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passed before the war, remains virtually blocked. Iran's seizure of two cargo ships highlighted Washington's difficulties in trying to control the passage," Reuters writes.

"As tensions have increased this week due to the lack of a meeting between the US and With Iran, an indefinite cease—fire is likely to coincide with the continuation of the conflict," said oil consultant Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates. — This contributes to an even greater increase in prices, especially for Brent crude and diesel fuel."

What is the fact that Chinese state-owned companies have begun to compete with Indian refineries in the procurement of Russian oil. This was noticed on the American TV channel CNBC.

Gas

Meanwhile, gas in Europe is not lagging behind. During the week, monthly deliveries from the TTF exchange increased from $ 490 per thousand cubic meters to $550.

If traders have become more optimistic about the launch of a new LNG project in the United States, the European regulator does not feel such feelings.

"Europe could reach 80% of the filling level at current LNG import rates (about 11 billion cubic meters per month). It will be difficult to achieve the goal of 90% without additional sources of supply," the agency believes.

New supplies from the United States will not block the volume of short-term contracts for Russian LNG and pipeline gas, which will be banned at the end of April and in the summer, and countries The EU can only hope that Asia will not be able to compete because of prices. They are not the same as in March, but they are still almost 40% higher than in February. Not to mention the fact that even those prices exceeded the pre-crisis twice.

The price of coal this week was like a weather vane. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) increased slightly over the week from $101.4 per ton to $102.5.