Energy market for the week: The Iranian war turned out to be the worst of all crises combined

All week Donald Trump and the White House have been attacking the world with statements about negotiations with Iran in order to bring down oil prices. The markets are already ceasing to believe the US president and are starting to look at the real supply situation. In Europe, they are still silent about where they will take additional tens of billions to replenish storage facilities before next winter.

Oil

The fourth week of the Iranian war brought a decline in oil prices. But it was short. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent from Friday to Friday increased from $ 109.9 to $ 114.5 per barrel.

"Despite the talk of de-escalation, oil prices depend on the duration of the war, and not just on the headlines. Any direct damage to the oil infrastructure or a protracted conflict could force the markets to quickly revise prices upwards," Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva told Reuters.

This week, Donald Trump attacked the world with statements about constructive negotiations with Iran, but he denied them and the White House's attempts to restrain prices did not last long. For several days, oil dropped in price below $ 100. But then it has grown and is holding higher, even though Donald Trump has now extended until April 6 the deadline by which Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.

An Iranian official, meanwhile, told Reuters that the 15-point US proposal handed to Tehran by Pakistan was "one-sided and unfair."

The war has reduced global oil supplies by 11 million barrels per day, Reuters estimates. The International Energy Agency has called the Iranian crisis worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s and the Ukrainian conflict combined.

"Market pressure is increasing every day. Asian countries are already using reserve stocks," said Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of the Australian consulting company XAnalysts.

Macquarie Group estimates that the extension of the conflict until June will lead to a jump in prices to $ 200 per barrel. This probability is estimated at 40%.

Gas

Europe is getting used to living with even more expensive gas, while the pumping season is ahead. During the week, monthly deliveries from the TTF exchange decreased from $ 721 per thousand cubic meters to $ 654. Compared to February, prices remain 70% higher.

In countries The EU continues to withdraw gas from storage facilities and its reserves are already more than 6 billion cubic meters less than last winter. A year ago, such volumes would have cost almost half as much — by $ 2 billion. But we will have to pump 60 billion cubic meters to at least restore last year's reserves.

The authorities of the EU countries have not yet said anything about measures to fill the storage facilities. However, as last year, it is unprofitable for traders to upload large volumes. They make money on the difference in summer and winter prices, but they are still at the same level.

In the conditions of stopping LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, as well as plans to start abandoning Russian LNG as early as April, the European Union finds itself in a risky situation. On the one hand, they will find money for gas. On the other hand, is the European industry and residents ready to survive another price shock?

The head of Shell, Wael Sawan, warned that there is a shortage of energy resources due to the suspension of exports from The Persian Gulf has not yet reached Europe, but it will notice a shortage in April.

Meanwhile, coal in Europe has fallen somewhat in price, but remains with a high price. Monthly deliveries from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) decreased over the week from $127.9 per ton to $119.7.