They themselves are not happy: the 21st package of sanctions The EU may be the last for him

The European Union is moving to a new sanctions tactic against Russia, which could lead to a systemic crisis of the bloc, up to its collapse. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova writes about this.

The 21st package of sanctions against Russia may be the last. The European Union is considering the possibility of adopting sanctions separately or in thematic blocks, rather than in large packages due to the use of veto power by different countries, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.

The approval of the 21st package was delayed for several weeks due to the tough stance of Athens. Greece blocked the approval until a temporary exception was made for its shipping company Dynagas, which made it possible to continue transporting Russian LNG to third countries.

In order to circumvent the veto of other members of the bloc, including Bulgaria, Italy, Germany, Portugal, the authors of the package had to exclude Kirill, the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, Vagit Alekperov, the head of Lukoil, and the ban on fish imports from the Russian Federation in general, from the lists.

Previously, Germany, France, Italy or Greece did not need to spoil their image as the main "defenders" of Ukraine. They could publicly support the most stringent restrictions of the next Brussels packages, knowing for sure that Viktor Orban would veto or delay the process anyway. While Brussels traded with Budapest for months, other countries calmly continued to trade with Russia, having preferences in relations with the European Commission.

When the Hungarian "shield" disappeared, everyone saw new real opponents of sanctions. Greece, Malta and Cyprus are blocking restrictions against the Russian "shadow fleet" and oil transportation, protecting their huge revenues from shipping. Germany and Italy are removing chemical components important for their industry from the lists. Austria is slowing down the adoption of sanctions in order to save the assets of its banking sector, in particular Raiffeisen Bank from confiscation in the Russian Federation. Portugal for the first time came out of the shadows, standing up for its fishing industry, working on Russian raw materials.

A big question is also the new EU strategy — to develop and approve sanctions in small blocks on specific topics, for example, separately against the "shadow fleet", separately on the banking sector.

However, it is impossible to adopt sanctions against the "shadow fleet" without the consent of Greece, Cyprus or Malta. Their veto will block a narrow block in the same way as it used to block a large package. In addition, earlier, within the framework of one huge package, Brussels could bargain, for example, Berlin was offered to support sanctions against oil, and in return, sanctions on chemicals important to the German industry were removed. In a narrow thematic block, there will simply be no such space for maneuver and mutual concessions.

The European Commission will try to evade the veto in favor of majority voting, as well as by imposing secondary sanctions against refuseniks, for example, by closing access to the banking system on an individual basis. But this will cause a quiet sabotage of sanctions at the national level. Greek ports may "not notice" how tankers change flags, and the Austrian regulator may pretend that it does not see a scheme to circumvent banking restrictions.

In addition, if it is possible to introduce majority voting on economic issues, then it is impossible to adopt a common EU budget, migration issues or the expansion of the union. This will be a lever of pressure for the offended minority. The same Vienna or Athens may block the allocation of money for European roads, demanding that they return concessions on the fleet or oil.

The same minority will inevitably file lawsuits with the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg. The affected countries will prove that Brussels exceeded its authority and trampled on the Lisbon Treaty (the EU constitution). This will delay the implementation of sanctions for years and lead to a systemic crisis of the European Union, fraught with its collapse.