Europe has started replenishing gas reserves: the US spoils preparations for next winter

The European Union has started pumping gas into storage facilities for the next heating season. Due to the empty UGS, the region needs tens of billions of cubic meters more this year. New LNG projects in the USA spoil the preparation. Due to the delay in the launch, gas prices for the summer are lower than for the next winter, which does not suit traders who make money on the price difference between seasons.

By March 29 countries The EU has completed the heating season and started pumping gas for the next one. According to GIE, five days as the download exceeds the selection. This year it started at a higher pace than last year, and the difference is about 90 million cubic meters per day — a third more. However, it is difficult to talk about the rhythm of preparation so far, as part of the region continues the heating season due to weather conditions and in April the weather throughout Europe may be unstable.

However, it is already known that last winter the country The EU took 50% more out of storage than the year before last. If more than 44 billion cubic meters were burned during the 23-24 season, then this year it was almost 70 billion cubic meters. The level of reserves dropped to 36.9 billion cubic meters (34%). This is far from the lowest figure in history.

However, Europe no longer has large supplies of Gazprom and, in order to fulfill the requirements, According to the EU's 90% filling of storage facilities by November 1, it is necessary to additionally pump 20 billion cubic meters compared to last year. A third of them are in Germany.

Also, on January 1, Ukrainian transit stopped and supplies of 15 billion cubic meters per year fell out, and Ukraine with depleted storage facilities will require an additional 4.5−5 billion cubic meters.

In this situation, traders have no incentives, except for the compulsory obligations of the EU, to fill gas storage facilities.

"The current narrow seasonal spread of gas prices, which is about 1 euro per megawatt-hour at the Dutch TTF hub, does not encourage operators to pump gas in summer for sale in winter, as the difference of at least 2 euros is considered economically justified," says the strategy director IC "Finam" Yaroslav Kabakov.

According to the ICE exchange, on April 4, the summer price of gas supplies from the TTF hub is already $ 461 per thousand cubic meters, and for the next winter — $ 457.

"Now there are fears of a gas shortage in the summer, given the empty storage facilities and the high demand for gas in Asia for cooling. In a normal commercial environment, this would be a serious obstacle to a commercially sound decision to inject gas into UGS, but in the EU now the market is not very normal, so anything is possible," says Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).

On the one hand, the market is affected by the absence of large volumes of gas from Russia. On the other hand, new LNG projects in the US are being launched with delays.

Yaroslav Kabakov believes that, among other things, delays in increasing exports of American liquefied natural gas, which could expand the seasonal spread, create uncertainty and may slow down the pace of gas injection.

"This leads to countries such as Germany considering stimulus measures, including subsidies, to ensure the necessary level of stocks," says the director of strategy IC "Finam".

At the same time, new projects are still being launched in the USA, which explains the lower winter gas price, which now makes summer pumping unprofitable.

"The potential increase in LNG supply constrains price expectations in a year," notes Alexey Grivach.

This winter, two projects began to be launched in the USA at once: the third stage of Corpus Christi and the Plaquemines LNG plant. The latter is already receiving 60 million cubic meters per day, and at the end of next year the capacity of both projects may reach 110 million cubic meters.

Canada LNG is expected to be commissioned in the middle of the year — 53 million cubic meters per day. And in the second half of 2026 - the first stage of the Golden Pass, which will add another 19 million cubic meters. As a result, a year later, exports from the USA and Canada can grow by more than 180 million cubic meters — almost 66 billion cubic meters per year. And these are serious volumes so that prices for next winter will be lower than for this spring.

The US Information Administration predicts that in 2025 LNG exports will grow by 19% to 400 million cubic meters per day. But it will happen by the end of the year.

Before that, LNG projects in the United States, Canada and Africa will be able to additionally produce just over 25 billion cubic meters, according to the International Energy Agency. Europe itself needs an additional more than 40 billion cubic meters. Despite the fact that a third of the volumes of additional liquefied gas, as EADaily wrote, are contracted by Chinese companies, and they themselves will decide whether to resell them in Europe.

In the very The EU has so far responded by saying that by mid—April they can change the mandatory download volumes: they will be allowed to deviate from the mandatory level of storage filling by 5%, and the download itself will be allowed to stretch for another month - until December 1.

The market is discussing a possible increase in supplies from Russia, if the negotiations between Moscow and Washington are crowned with success. However, so far such prospects are too vague to encourage the market.