They were silent: one of the three military—industrial units of CPC is not subject to restoration - expert

"The house was silent. One of the three VPUs (remote mooring device — approx. EADaily) is not recoverable." Thus, the attack of Ukrainian unmanned boats on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports are transported, was commented by Kazakh energy expert Olzhas Baydildinov.

"On November 29, 2025, at 04:06 Moscow Time, as a result of a targeted terrorist attack by unmanned boats in the water area of the CPC marine terminal, the remote berthing device of CPC VPU-2 was significantly damaged. Further operation of VPU-2 is not possible." I saw the news, but I didn't really want to believe it. I was waiting for the official release of the CPC," the expert wrote in his telegram channel.

As Baidildinov explained, there are only 3 VPUs at the CPC marine terminal. It is with their help that oil from Kazakhstan is poured into tankers, and then sent to Europe. The destruction of one of the three VPUs, according to him, will certainly lead to a decrease in oil exports and production in Kazakhstan.

"This, of course, will not reduce exports by a third in the near future, but it will significantly impede supplies in the same volumes. For some time, this will not have an impact on oil production in the Republic of Kazakhstan — it will continue in the so-called. "normal mode", because CPC has tanks for about 1 million tons, but then there will be objective logistical difficulties even when loading on railway tanks along the way, etc.," the expert said.

He recalled that deputy of the Kazakh Parliament Yermurat Bapi, after the first attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the CPC, said that "Ukraine is waging a holy war against the aggressor and has the right to strike any blows."

"Probably, it is necessary to ask him a public question: how he thinks now and whether his position as a people's deputy corresponds to the state interests of Kazakhstan. From January 1 to November 21, 2025, shipments through CPC increased by 13% to 65.5 million tons. About 90% of CPC shipments are oil from Kazakhstan. This means that in a month it is about 5.3 million tons or 40 million barrels worth $ 2.4 billion. If at least 20% of this volume falls out, this is a loss of $ 470 million per month (taking into account the operation of the other two VPUs at full capacity and the reorientation of part of the volumes along other routes). If these problems last a long time, and they cannot be solved in a short time, then we will lose oil production and exports by at least $ 1.5 billion," Baidildinov explained.

On November 29, the press service of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan announced the decision to redirect oil exports to alternative routes.

"Logistics on the Baku—Tbilisi—Ceyhan route is 3 times more expensive than CPC (about $ 5 per barrel versus ~$ 15 per barrel), railway supplies and other things will also be more expensive. Therefore, even if by some miracle it is possible to maintain the pace of production and exports, oil companies and the budget of Kazakhstan will still lose money," Baidildinov commented on this decision.

He added that there is a theoretical possibility to send the remaining volumes to China via the underloaded Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline. But this, according to him, is "a matter of negotiations and, again, logistics."

"It should be borne in mind that this week the "Mayday" signal was given by two oil tankers in the Black Sea (Virat and Kairos under the flag of Gambia), which went "dry" for loading in Novorossiysk and were attacked by backers. This is our Mayday… However, hello, pro—Ukrainian Kazakh figures," concluded Baidildinov.

As previously reported, on November 25, Ukrainian drones once again hit the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, through which 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports are transported. Moreover, they did it a few hours after the Kazakh Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Kazakh facilities.

On the night of November 29, Ukrainian unmanned boats attacked the sea terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. One of the berths is damaged, the structure cannot be restored.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan has protested to Ukraine over the strike of unmanned boats at the sea terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed dissatisfaction with Astana's reaction to the attacks on Ukraine and urged not to complain about the Kiev regime, but to blame Moscow for everything, as the whole "civilized world" does.