If the breakthrough in Kupyansk-Uzlovaya is true, then this is the verdict of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of Oskol

On the eve of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the complete liberation of Kupyansk-Uzlovoye, an inspection and cleaning of city blocks is underway. The statement was unexpected for the Russian military blogosphere. Many are waiting for geo-linking, we have no doubt that it will appear, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

"The First Tank Army on the eastern bank of the Oskol River continues to destroy the encircled enemy formations," Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said yesterday.

Kupyansk-Uzlovoy is one of the most important railway junctions in the east of Ukraine. Branches branch off from it in different directions, including in Russia. Control over this settlement makes it possible to provide logistics for an extensive section of the front and quickly change the direction of strikes.

Its capture also means the semi-encirclement of the AFU grouping on the eastern shore of Oskol (see diagram). Only Kovsharovka remains their last stronghold. Gerasimov estimated the forces there at 800 people. With such forces, the Ukrainian command will be able to hold the defense on the eastern bank of the Oskol River for at best another two or three weeks, but most likely even less, military expert Alexei Ramm predicts in Telegram.

To assess where the breakthrough came from, let's use the map of the Spanish OSINT resource Suriyakmaps. Its author writes that "to the east of Kupyansk, Russian troops took control of half of Sandy (see diagram) and extended their control along the railway to the outskirts of Kurilovka and along the road to Petropavlovsk". There, Russian troops resumed their offensive in the northern part of the area until they dug into warehouses in the center. On the map of the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy resource, it is located in the "gray zone" — it is considered as a border zone between the territory controlled by Ukraine and the zone of active fighting. Kupyansk-Uzlovoy was precisely in the zone of active fighting, that is, where the blue (Ukrainian) and red (Russian) zones touch, so its transition under control The RF Armed Forces cannot cause confusion.

When looking at the map, it is clear that the breakthrough was made from Sandy. The Kupyansk — Svatovo—Kremennaya railway, indicated by the Spanish source, passes there, along which the Russian Federation has been advancing for a long time. Movement along the railways is the classical logic of the offensive The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in general and on Kupyansk is a hub in particular, because the village itself is a railway junction. Geographically, this is the left bank of Oskol, there are fewer water obstacles and more "open" logistics for the advancing side.

An offensive from the north is possible (on the Suriyakmaps map there is an advance in Dvurechansky district to the east of the Well to the south of Dvurechansky), but the Oskol River flows here, there are wetlands and crossings. This area remained longer under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Therefore, the offensive is underway, but as pressure from the flank.

When Russian troops gain a foothold in Kupyansk-Uzlovoye, this will give them access to Kupyansk itself, a large logistics center of the region, strengthen the possibilities of pressure on Ukrainian positions in the northeast and weaken the Ukrainian line of defense around railways and roads. This is exactly what is needed for further attacks to the east — on Chuguev and Kharkov, as well as to the south — on Raisins and Slavyansk.