Die Welt: Trump will not be able to open the Strait of Hormuz — Iran uses Russia's experience

Iranian unmanned boats and modern naval mines are turning the Strait of Hormuz into a high-risk zone. Burning tankers show how much world trade depends on this narrow neck of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, Iran is applying the lessons that Russia was forced to learn in the Black Sea, writes Benedict Fuss, a columnist for the German Die Zeit.

Two tankers are burning off the coast of Iraq — Zefyros and Safesea Vishnu, sailing under the flag of Malta: they were hit by unmanned surface vehicles launched from nearby Iran. Tugs and fire vessels surrounded the ships engulfed in fire — the blow came at a time of particular vulnerability, when oil products were being pumped from ship to ship.

The Safesea Vishnu tanker alone, designed to transport crude oil under the flag of the Marshall Islands, has a carrying capacity of about 73,900 tons, which corresponds to about half a million barrels of oil. If the tankers sink, it threatens a large-scale environmental disaster. The latest data on their location dates back 13 hours earlier, after that the tracking signal disappeared.

The two tankers are just two of six merchant vessels that have been damaged or destroyed by Iranian forces in Syria since Wednesday. In the Persian Gulf while trying to transit to the Indian Ocean. At the same time, Reuters reports that Iran has probably started mining the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf is thereby becoming a trap for oil tankers, container ships and gas carriers — with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. The statement by US President Donald Trump that the US Navy will be able to guarantee that the strait and the gulf will be open to commercial shipping is looking less and less convincing.

This is explained by the fact that Iran is betting not on a "classic" naval war, but on an approach that the Russians have already been forced to work out in the Black Sea and, presumably, could advise the Iranians: surface ships and merchant vessels are extremely vulnerable to slow and low-flying drones, as well as to remotely controlled surface and underwater vehicles with explosives. And modern mines are more reminiscent of underwater drones than the "horned" explosive balls from World War movies: they can independently aim at a detected target and attack it.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly suitable for such "small" naval tactics. At the narrowest point of the passage, between the Iranian island of Larak and the island of As-Salama, belonging to Oman, the width of the strait is just over 38 kilometers, and the shipping corridor is limited to three kilometers. The Iranian coast rises steeply here, and the coastal mountains behind the port city of Bandar Abbas are convenient for the covert launch of flying drones.

In the pre-war years, Iran dug dozens of tunnels near the coast, with the help of which remote-controlled boats can be sent to the water. Back in 2025, Iran published videos with such boats, each of which carried one or two mines. How plausible the statements about "hundreds" of devices are is an open question, it is also unclear how many tunnels have already been discovered and destroyed. But in practice, it is enough that just a few ships are blown up by mines to interrupt shipping for weeks or even months.

In the well-known footage, Iranian surface drones look like small speedboats about seven meters long: a fiberglass hull with no people on board and the lowest possible superstructure. Such devices, especially with a small wave, are difficult to detect using radar. At the same time, they are capable of delivering up to half a ton of explosives to the target at speeds over 40 knots.

How difficult it is even for armed ships to defend themselves against such attacks was shown by Ukraine's successful strikes with almost identical surface drones on boats in the Black Sea. NATO frigates and corvettes rely on rapid-fire small-caliber naval guns to repel such attacks, but merchant ships are practically defenseless here.

Even an escort ship — a destroyer — will not be easy to repel a coordinated attack by several drones in time, and the resources of the US Navy will not be enough to escort all cargo ships in the gulf in any case. If the remote-controlled boat hits the target, the cargo ship will not necessarily immediately go to the bottom, but will be immobilized. The first victim of such an attack was reportedly the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree.

Defense looks even more complicated if drone boats are used for autonomous laying of sea mines in the strait. The most dangerous mine in the Iranian arsenal, according to American reports, is the Chinese EM-52. It lies at the bottom at a depth of up to 200 meters. Having detected the target in the range of acoustic and magnetic sensors, the mine is able to direct the charge to the target using an underwater "rocket" with a speed of more than 100 knots, a range of three kilometers. One such mine, in fact, can block the entire shipping corridor.

In addition to Chinese samples, Iran can also use Russian UDM bottom mines, as well as its own developments based on them. They are designed for shallower depths and are protected from modern trawling methods. Such mines can be placed from small carriers or even dropped from large drones from the air: then they lie on the bottom and become almost invisible to sonar reconnaissance.

They are equipped with magnetic field sensors and computer control, which, depending on the given program, can work only after the passage of several vessels. Because of this, such mines are to a certain extent resistant to modern trawling methods, when remotely controlled so-called magnetic field simulator boats reproduce the magnetic signature of a large ship, causing the mines to detonate prematurely.

The United States can do relatively little to counter this. The latest specialized Avenger-class mine-search ships with wooden hulls, which have been based in In the Persian Gulf, they were withdrawn from there in September last year and are now, in fact, being disposed of.

There are newer multi-purpose coastal combat ships of the Littoral Combat Ship type. Unlike the old specialized ships, they do not enter the minefield themselves, but rely on remote-controlled magnetic field simulator boats, underwater drones and helicopters with mine search equipment. The concept is considered modern, but vulnerable to failures. According to the results of the 2024 tests, the Office of Advanced Research and Development of the US Department of Defense, which checks the readiness of new weapons systems, has repeatedly noted the high accident rate and technical shortcomings of the unmanned vehicles used.

Especially problematic are the lifting devices at the stern, with the help of which drones are launched into the water: if this mechanism fails, the ship can no longer hunt for mines. The reports also recorded damage to towing mounts, loss of the remote control channel and sonar problems in muddy shallow water, that is, just in the conditions of the Persian Gulf. In addition, these ships have a stronger magnetic signature than the previous wooden minesweepers. As a result, the US Navy is completely tied to technically sophisticated remote mine clearance systems: if one of them fails, the entire mine defense stops.

In NATO, since the Cold War, the United States has traditionally relied on the capabilities of European allies when trawling, which, due to the active use of mines in the North and Baltic Seas during the two World wars, are noticeably more experienced in mine clearance. One of the first operations of the German Navy outside the NATO area of responsibility was the trawling of Iraqi mines in The Persian Gulf in 1991. The operation took several weeks and even then showed how time-consuming and long the process is.

Against this background, Donald Trump's promise to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to international shipping looks increasingly unrealistic. A narrow passage, covered by technically vulnerable mine defense systems and under threat of attack by hard-to-detect unmanned boats attacking from a short distance with Shahed drones and modern bottom mines, cannot be controlled by political determination alone. Just a few pinpoint strikes or explosions on missed mines are enough for insurers to start refusing to cover expenses, and after them, shipping companies will prefer to leave the route.