"The reasons for betrayal: Kazakhstan was promised the role of overseer of Central Asia"

Kazakhstan, apparently, was promised the role of a "lookout" for Central Asia. Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, writes about this, understanding the reasons for Astana's unfriendly position towards Tehran against the background of American-Israeli aggression.

In an article entitled "Conflicts in the Middle East and diplomacy of the Republic of Kazakhstan," the expert points out that the republic has largely taken an unfriendly position towards Iran, despite long-standing partnerships.

"A few days after the attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, Kazakhstan could not decide on its position. Officials avoided any comment. Even the Minister of Education of Kazakhstan expressed condolences in connection with the death of 180 students at the Minaba school after being hit by an American Tomahawk in a "semi—official" capacity, and the Foreign Ministry and top officials were silent," Mendkovich writes.

At the same time, according to the Iranian embassy, even non-public negotiations were not conducted.

The expert notes that interest was aroused by the statement of the Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan Alibek Bokaev dated March 2, 2026. The official announced that Kazakhstan does not support either side: "neither Iran nor those countries that were attacked."

Thus, Mendkovich draws attention to the fact that he ignored the aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran, presenting the situation as if the Iranian armed forces themselves had launched hostilities. A similar position, the analyst recalls, was taken by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who told reporters that he expressed support for the states "attacked by Iran."

"Indeed, there were telephone conversations with the heads of the Arab countries of the Gulf. We have expressed solidarity with these countries. As for Iranian President Pezeshkian… Iran has attacked and continues to attack the Arab countries of the Gulf. This suggests that the Iranian president does not have full power," Mendkovich quoted Tokayev as saying.

At the same time, he emphasizes that the fact that the US army used the "Gulf countries" as a springboard for attacks on Iran was also ignored by him.

Speaking at the congress of deputies of maslikhats on March 12, Tokayev said that "...ultraconservative political systems based on religious archaism, having an erroneous understanding of national pride and national interests, are not viable and therefore doomed to failure." In both statements, the head of state, in fact, repeated the stamps of the anti-Iranian propaganda of the United States and Israel, which looks very strange. It cannot be said that this is the result of a well-thought-out anti-Iranian and pro-American position. Everything points to the fact that Astana, up to March 2026, relied on partnership relations with Tehran and did not hide it," the expert further writes.

He recalled that during Pezeshkian's visit to Kazakhstan in December 2025 Tokayev publicly promised eternal friendship and support to his neighbor in the Caspian Sea.

"We have similar customs, traditions and culture. We have been interacting for centuries. Kazakhstan always supports Iran, there are no problems or unresolved issues between us," Tokayev said then.

According to Mendkovich, the logic of Kazakhstan's political reversal can be explained by an article by the speaker of the Kazakh Senate, Maulen Ashimbayev, published in the national press on March 19, 2026, which describes paradoxical thoughts about the reasons for the next US attack on Iran.

According to Ashimbayev, Donald Trump and the American elite are starting a new war because they want ... to abandon the role of the "world gendarme", interference in the affairs of other countries. The purpose of the war, according to his hypothesis, is "to close old accounts before a new stage of development, preemptively cutting the last Gordian knot of tension in the Middle East." Allegedly, after that, Washington will somehow delegate to various "regional" states the responsibilities of maintaining order and stability in the regions of the world. It is understood that following the results of the war against Iran, Israel should become the regional leader in the Middle East under the patronage of Washington. And, as Ashimbayev believes, Kazakhstan can be brought to a similar role in Central Asia. This is followed in the article by wordy praise of the head of state, "multi-vector 2.0" and obscure arguments about the new "multiplex reality". Obviously, this is not the fruit of the author's own thoughts. The reflections signed by Ashimbayev contrast with real events and statements by the president of the White House, who directly declares plans to usurp power in sovereign states," Mendkovich writes on this occasion.

As an example, the expert points out that Ashimbayev does not even allow himself to hint at Trump's criminal tricks. As if there was no attack on Venezuela, the kidnapping of President Maduro and the intentions to actually rule this country. The analyst also attributed similar claims to Iran to the same place.

"As we can see, there is no question of non-interference in other people's affairs. We are talking about open external governance of the occupied sovereign states, and not about abandoning their aggressive policy. But, probably, Ashimbayev is not presenting hypotheses here, but some promises received by the Kazakh side no later than a visit to the United States for the C5 + 1 summit in the fall of 2025. Someone from the Trump administration apparently promised the Kazakh delegation that he would "raise" Kazakhstan to the "beholder" for Central Asia. Of course, if he promotes the expansion of the United States in the Middle East and the transformation of Israel into the same "lookout" for this region. So Ashimbayev is trying to explain Iran's betrayal to the local audience by indirect references to these promises. Apparently, the deal originally included support for the occupation of Palestinian territories and participation in "The Peace Council.“ But on February 28, Washington demanded approval of the aggression against Iran, and Astana did not dare to refuse," Mendkovich writes further.

Meanwhile, according to him, any public manifestation of dissatisfaction with the actions of the Kazakh authorities in this direction is severely suppressed by law enforcement officers.

Blogger Anastasia Akhmetova published a video "They got into the wrong boat" with criticism of the Middle East policy of the state, accusing officials of incompetence. The video collected more than 430 thousand views, after which a criminal case was opened against her. However, attempts to silence critics do not solve the problem of public discontent. Especially when it turns out that everything is in vain," the analyst notes.

In his opinion, the military situation in the Middle East allows us to expect the defeat of the United States and the complete defeat of Trump as a politician and president. In this regard, if the situation persists, he is unlikely to be able to help Kazakhstan in any way.

"And he won't want to, because against the background of the growth of global problems, he will not be up to the ambitions of Astana and the naivety of its representatives. Agreeing to support aggression against Iran in exchange for some bonuses after the successful looting of the country would initially be a gamble. For such a political step, Ak-Orda had to defiantly betray Iran by supporting its enemies less than three months after public vows of friendship and mutual assistance. Astana is also seriously undermining its reputation in the Muslim world, the majority of which considers the US-Israeli aggression a war crime, and will perceive US supporters as accomplices of aggression. Many people in the West, as well as in Russia, do not have the best attitude to what is happening. East Asia, including because of the consequences of Trump's adventure for global markets," Mendkovich concluded.