There is no gas in Europe and it is not expected — to bow to Russia, one at a time?

Storage facilities are emptying, and fuel prices are breaking records, forcing European capitals, bypassing Brussels, to look for outlets for Russian supplies. The EU is preparing for an energy crisis amid the conflict in the Middle East, writes columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

According to El País, Brussels is discussing austerity measures — from limiting the temperature of air conditioners to reducing air travel and stimulating remote work, and some countries are already raising the issue of resuming energy purchases from Russia. Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, as well as Belgium, France and Spain. Actually, these are countries that are actively buying gas from the Russian Federation even now.

The gas situation in Europe is not just a crisis, but on the verge of an emergency, as gas storage facilities are filled by an average of about 28%, and gas prices have increased by more than 55% in a little over a month. At the same time, dependence on LNG supplies from the United States is 57%, but there is little hope for them, as they are redirected to Asia due to higher market prices. If we take into account not only LNG, but also pipeline gas, then American supplies account for about 27-28% of the total volume of gas imported to the EU (what Russia had before the sanctions).

According to a recent report by the Bruegel analytical center, "doubling gas prices will lead to an increase in European gas import costs by about 100 billion euros over the next 12 months." Italy is the most dependent on LNG from the Middle East, receiving about 30% of its gas from Qatar. Prime Minister George Meloni visited the Gulf countries in early April in an attempt to negotiate uninterrupted supplies, but returned with nothing.

For oil products, the situation is less deplorable, but also does not cause optimism. According to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in the first 10 days of the conflict alone, European taxpayers had to spend an additional 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) on oil imports. The same Italy has introduced aviation fuel rationing, retail prices for gasoline and diesel are rising everywhere, governments are forced to remove taxes from fuel prices, and this increases the budget deficit.

According to the calculations of Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of RDIF, fuel reserves in the European Union may be exhausted by about April 20, and attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure will only accelerate the trend towards transforming the position of Europeans. When there is no fuel and gas in the countries, the governments of the EU countries will begin to conclude agreements with the Kremlin themselves, bypassing Brussels.

Brussels will be forced to cancel the introduction of an embargo on LNG supplies from Russia on short-term contracts from April 25. Imports of Russian pipeline gas to Europe via the Turkish Stream have already increased by 22% year-on-year in March, Reuters reports.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that the European Union should lift sanctions on the import of Russian oil and gas, take steps to restore oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline and put an end to the war on Ukraine, to cope with the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has the same position. If his party wins the parliamentary elections in a week, it will be a signal to Brussels — give up. Sooner or later, but also Germany will ask for consultations from Russia on the launch of the surviving branch of the Nord Stream. Another question is what Moscow's decision will be, since President Vladimir Putin first threatened to redirect gas to Asia, and then clarified that under long-term contracts he allows the continuation of supplies to Europe.