To whom the war is, and to whom the mother is related: because of the Strait of Hormuz, the treasury of Russia is growing abnormally

The global energy system is undergoing a profound transformation due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which gives Russia a chance to finish the fiscal year with a budget surplus. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova writes about this.

Blocking of key logistics hubs in The Persian Gulf provoked not just volatility, but a full-fledged redistribution of sales markets. In conditions when convoys in The Strait of Hormuz is not provided with security, the world economy is forced to look for alternative sources of raw materials, which inevitably leads to a revision of prices.

For the Russian budget, the current situation acts as a powerful stabilizer. Despite the general slowdown in GDP growth under the influence of tight monetary policy, export revenues are showing abnormal positive dynamics. We are witnessing a situation where the geopolitical premium covers the costs of sanctions pressure, creating conditions for early closure of the budget deficit.

Current windfalls are a resource for maneuvering in conditions of uncertainty. While Western consumers are discussing limiting fuel sales due to shortages, the domestic oil and gas industry is adapting to the new reality, where discounts are replaced by premiums to world standards.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has physically eliminated about 20% of the world's oil supply from the market. This created a situation of a "perfect storm" when buyers are forced to compete for any free volumes of raw materials with similar physicochemical properties. As a result, the price of Omani oil overcame the $150 per barrel mark, and the Brent benchmark gained a foothold above the psychologically important level.

"We see a classic overheating of the commodity market caused by a supply shock. In such a situation, consumers are willing to overpay for the reliability of supplies, which makes Russian oil grades extremely in demand despite any restrictions," explained macroeconomist Artem Loginov.

This situation has exposed the vulnerability of the global energy system, where the deterioration of infrastructure is superimposed on logistical failures. The countries of Europe and Asia are faced with the need to urgently restructure their energy balances, which in the short term plays into the hands of exporters with developed pipeline and tanker logistics, independent of Middle Eastern bottlenecks.

In mid-March 2026, the price of Russian Urals oil for shipments to India reached a record $ 98.93 per barrel. The key marker of the changes was the almost complete disappearance of the traditional discount to Brent. Moreover, in a number of contracts, Russian raw materials are traded at a premium, which reflects the acute shortage of heavy and medium-sulfur oil, which was previously supplied by the Persian Gulf region.

Russia continues to produce about 9.2 million barrels per day according to OPEC+ quotas. Taking into account domestic consumption, the volume of exports allows to accumulate huge financial resources. It is important to note that even with a temporary drop in Brent to $ 102, the value of Urals remains consistently high due to the specifics of demand in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the Federal budget Law, a deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles was set for 2026. However, during the first two weeks of the active phase of the crisis in In the Persian Gulf, Russia has already earned about $10 billion in additional revenues. If the current price situation persists, the "military premium" for only one quarter may exceed $ 75 billion (more than 6 trillion rubles).

"The math is simple: an additional $150 million a day is 2.1 billion in two weeks, according to conservative estimates alone. In fact, export earnings allow not only to cover the planned deficit, but also to form significant reserves," said financial analyst Nikita Volkov.

These funds are critically important against the background of the fact that in January-February 2026 the budget deficit has already reached 90% of the annual plan. The inflow of petrodollars allows the government to maintain social stability and finance large-scale projects without resorting to excessive borrowing in the domestic market, where rates remain at a high level.

The reorientation to the East has ceased to be a slogan and has become a physical reality. India and China absorb almost the entire available volume of Russian oil, ensuring uninterrupted payments. Transparency of financial flows plays an important role in this scheme, although the state deliberately restricts the publicity of reporting by state corporations to protect against secondary sanctions.

For business, this means new rules of the game: the administration of export operations is becoming more complicated, but profitability is growing. Even in the case of temporary interruptions in shipments, the accumulated financial "fat" allows companies to go through periods of turbulence without losing investment attractiveness.

Despite the oil triumph, the regulator remains cautious. History teaches that commodity cycles are volatile. While investors are watching gold quotes break away from reality, the oil market remains the foundation of the real economy. Excess liquidity creates risks of inflationary pressure, which requires the delicate work of the Central Bank to sterilize the money supply.

"It is important to understand that super profits are not only an opportunity, but also a challenge for the financial monitoring system. The quality of the administration of these flows will determine the stability of the ruble in the long term," said Mikhail Frolov, a financial monitoring specialist.

In the long term, Russia is betting on the development of its own production base. For example, the growth of gold production in the Amur region and investments in the Arctic shelves create a diversified portfolio of assets that will allow to offset risks even in the event of normalization of the situation in the The Strait of Hormuz and the return of low energy prices.