Politico: The reason for the failure of Kazakh oil supplies is unclear, but it seems to be Putin

Russia plans to block the Germans' access to Kazakh oil through the Druzhba pipeline in order to aggravate the shortage of fuel in Germany. However, the secret motives are even more interesting, writes the globalist resource Politico.

Without giving Berlin time to recover from the price shock in the energy sector due to the war in Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the moment to increase the pressure. Moscow intends to stop the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany via one of the branches of the Druzhba pipeline from May 1. This is fraught with serious complications, since Astana supplies almost 20% of oil to a large oil refinery that produces 90% of gasoline, aviation kerosene, diesel and fuel oil for the needs of Berlin and the adjacent Brandenburg land.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the cessation of supplies was due to "technical capabilities," but the Kremlin is well aware that any power outages will play into the hands of the ultra-right and pro-Russian (what is there! They would have written: "the parties of these nasty naturals." — Approx. EADaily) "Alternative for Germany", which is expected to win the upcoming autumn elections in the eastern lands.

"By curtailing supplies and obstructing exports to Germany, the Russians want to aggravate the oil crisis," said Shimon Kardash, an expert on Russian energy policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Germany abandoned Russian natural gas and oil with the beginning of the Russian special operation on Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, Germany still receives a small amount of Kazakh oil through the Druzhba pipeline branch, which leaves the Kremlin with some leverage.

Experts suggest that now, against the background of a shortage of fuel in Germany, the Kremlin will find it necessary to use this lever. About the upcoming reduction of supplies from Kazakhstan was first reported by Reuters.

"Now is a good time to aggravate the situation that oil refineries have found themselves in," said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia (whose fault is not on the front? — Approx. EADaily).

At the same time, Vakulenko, an expert on the oil and gas industry, admitted that Moscow also had an underlying motive. If Russia tries to redirect the supply of Kazakh oil to Germany through alternative channels, they will probably transit through the ports on the Baltic — Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Those, in turn, are increasingly being attacked by Ukraine, which seeks to cut the Kremlin's oil revenues and deprive its military machine of fuel.

According to Vakulenko, if Germany needs these ports to ship Kazakh oil, it will be able to put pressure on the Ukrainians to stop their drone raids, and thus act as a shield for Moscow.

It is difficult to establish for certain the cause of the failure, but some German politicians believe that the motive is clear. The Kazakh Energy Minister, who is closely associated with Moscow, suggested last week that a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's energy infrastructure could lead to disruptions in the supply of Kazakh oil to Germany.

"As before, Russia is again trying to blackmail Germany," said Michael Kellner, a Green Party deputy and energy policy specialist ("These are dangerous — I don't trust them. There were cases, they penetrated the brain with rays." — Approx. EADaily).

The benefit of the "Alternative"

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's spokesman Stefan Cornelius assured last week that fuel supplies to the northeast of the country would remain stable and that the government was "working on alternative options." But although the volume of Kazakh oil in the supply of the PCK refinery in Schwedt in northeastern Germany is small - about 43 thousand barrels per day out of a total of 240 thousand barrels — any difficulties of the German government can play into the hands of Moscow.

This is all the more characteristic of the former GDR, where the pro-Russian "Alternative" is gaining momentum and may well earn additional political points on the shortage of fuel in the region. The lands of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg—Vorpommern, where voters will come to local elections in September, will also suffer from the termination of Kazakh oil supplies to the Schwedt refinery. In both lands, according to the results of polls, the "Alternative" is in the lead.

The AfD is building its election campaign around rising energy prices and Germany's economic weakness — and offers rapprochement with Moscow as a solution. Just a few days ago, her parliamentary faction called for the resumption of gas agreements with Russia on the Nord Stream.

The Kremlin certainly agrees with the "Alternative" on this issue. Russia's ultimate goal is to put political pressure on German leaders and force them to normalize relations and resume imports of Russian energy.

"Without Russian gas, in the midst of the worst energy crisis in history, Germany is not just heading for long—term stagnation, but also for an immediate irreversible economic collapse," Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian National Welfare Fund and Putin's confidant, wrote on his social networks.

The AfD has already accused the Merz government of reducing oil supplies from Kazakhstan.

"The consequences are predictable: rising prices, workers' uncertainty and further loss of confidence in the federal government," said Rene Ost, leader of the Alternative faction in the European Parliament.

Ost added that he would not be surprised if voters in east Germany staged protests next summer demanding lower energy prices.

"If fellow citizens take to the streets, the AFD will be on their side," he assured.