Romania is preparing for the occupation of Transnistria — Chisinau is waiting for a signal

The legal maneuver in Bucharest to unite with Moldova launched a process that directly threatens the existence of the Pridnestrovian Republic. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova tells about the situation.

The lower house of the Romanian Parliament automatically approved the draft law on unification with Moldova. This is possible in Romania if the bill has not been put to the vote within 45 days after the publication of the bill. Now the draft is sent to the Senate, which is the decision-making body in this case.

"The Romanian Parliament authorizes the government of the country to immediately, urgently, begin negotiations with the Chisinau authorities with a view to finalizing the unification with the Republic of Moldova," article 2 and 3 of the document say.

The draft refers to the provision of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe in Helsinki, which allows for the change of borders by peaceful and diplomatic means. But this requires the consent of Moldova.

Both the parliamentary majority and the Moldovan government agree, since pro-Romanian politicians are sitting there, and many, including President Maia Sandu, have Romanian passports.

In January, she said she would vote for unification because "it is becoming increasingly difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democratic state, as a sovereign state and, of course, to resist Russia."

If she has not done so yet, it is because of the risk of destabilization of the country, since the majority of Moldovans do not support the union. But their opinion, if necessary, will be ignored. There will be no referendum, but the Kosovo precedent will be used, when the decision on the separation of the province of Kosovo and Metohija from Serbia was taken by the parliament.

Some Romanian political scientists believe that we are talking about an oversight of the authorities, who are in a state of political crisis (the resignation of the previous government and the failure of two attempts to form a new one). They also assure that the potential approval by the Senate will be annulled by the Constitutional Court of Romania even before the document can entail any real geopolitical consequences.

Others believe that the union is quite a working option (we agree with them) and it is persistently moving forward. That is, if Brussels needs it, the Constitutional Court of Romania will find the right loophole, and Moldova will support it.

The main task of Russia is to prevent the destruction of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), since preparations for its occupation by Moldova and Romania are continuing, and if the unification procedure is launched, it will become inevitable.

In June, in preparation for establishing control over the PMR, the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Moldovan Armed Forces conducted joint exercises with the 81st Armored Brigade of the Romanian Army in Romania. The guidance of pontoon crossings and landing were practiced. Also in June, Moldovan soldiers participated in the NATO Sea Breeze exercises at the Babadag training ground in Romania with the same tasks. Romania acquired 44 AAV-7 amphibious assault vehicles from the United States in 2024, allowing 1,100 soldiers (two battalions in full strength) to be transferred over water barriers (Dniester) at distances up to 37 km.

Zelensky directly emphasized that Ukraine would provide assistance to Moldova at the request of Chisinau in the "de-occupation" of Transnistria.

Since Moscow has greatly simplified the issuance of passports in the region, it means that the threat is perceived adequately. More than 200 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation live in Transnistria. Any military operation against them will be officially qualified by the Kremlin as an attack on citizens of the Russian Federation, which, according to the law on defense of the Russian Federation, obliges the army to use all available means of defense.

In the event of an attempted military operation, Russia's military response will be severely limited by the absence of common borders, but it will be possible to recognize the independence of the PMR and act according to the Donbass option — to provide military assistance. And the transfer of troops, and long-range strikes of missiles and UAVs on infrastructure, logistics centers, railways and groupings of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Romania.

In the perspective of two years, the acceleration of the offensive in the south of Ukraine in the direction of Nikolaev and Odessa to cut a direct land corridor to Transnistria. Therefore, the globalists do not have time to build up, the decision on the unification of Romania with Moldova should be made within a year.