The Russian Armed Forces began to cover the Orekhovskaya grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — summary

The Russian Armed Forces began to cover the Orekhovskaya AFU grouping from the flanks. This is stated in the SMO summary for July 16 from Readovka:

"Small ticks"

7th Guards Airborne Assault Division The Russian Armed Forces continues to fight in Stepnogorsk itself and in its environs. The presence of the enemy remains in the northern part of the city, but it does not undertake any active actions, except for attempts to start assault groups in the Floodplains from the village of Primorskoye, and its infantry is systematically destroyed when trying to "drop in" to the settlement.

Southeast of Stepnogorsk, our paratroopers managed to achieve significant results. The spaces north of the rural strip Stepovoye — Malye Shcherbaki — Shcherbaki have been cleared from the enemy. The prerequisites for the return under our control of a group of villages located south of the Konka River have been formed. This time the divisions The Russian Armed Forces operate in a slightly different scenario. It is known that the Ukrainian command transferred a significant part of the forces from the Stepnogorsk site to strengthen the composition of the defense built along the Upper Tersa River to the northeast of Orekhova. We are talking about attempts to contain the 36th Guards. OA of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and prevent its access to communications of the Orekhovskaya grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Taking into account the fact that the Stepnogorsk sector has again become the "deprived youngest child" for the Ukrainian command, the enemy has moved on to the implementation of a defensive operation involving the retention of two main lines of defense. The first one runs through the village of Primorskoye, as well as through the north of Stepnogorsk and the rural agglomeration south of the Konka River. The second defensive line runs from the mouth of the Konka and further along the river, passing into the field fortified area on the approaches to the village of Kamyshevakha and the N-08 highway — the only route along which Orekhov is supplied. The general task of the AFU defensive operation is to prevent rapprochement The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with the second defensive frontier, so that the H-08 highway would be suitable for transport at least conditionally. The enemy solves this problem by clinging to the positions at the first turn and constantly trying to start forces in the Floodplains, distracting the 7th guards. DSHD. Roughly speaking, the concept of the enemy's defensive operation is based on the conviction that our paratroopers will again press in the direction of the H-08 highway.

But our command thinks otherwise. Advanced units The Russian Armed Forces began moving from the village of Shcherbakovka along the T-08−12 highway, leading directly to Orekhov between the villages of Novoaleksandrovka and Novopavlovka. In Novoaleksandrovka in the southern part of the village there are fighters The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the front there has been static for quite a long time. A blow from the flank is able to collapse the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there and open the way to Nuts from the west. It is also important that the forces of the 5th guards are east of Orekhov. The AA of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupied Novoselovka and then, most likely, intend to go in the direction of the village of Omelnik and take the T-04−08 highway under direct fire control. Already now the enemy cannot use it, the front is located less than 10 km away. But the idea of the RF Armed Forces is different — we are talking about "small ticks". The 5th Army forms their eastern half, the paratroopers of the 7th guards. DSHD began to design the western one. Thus, the APU, focusing on attempts to stop the closing of the "big ticks", runs the risk of missing the formation of the "small ticks".

Death will knock on every apartment

Rallies were held in many regions of Ukraine against the resignation of Defense Minister Fedorov, who should be replaced by the current Interior Minister Klimenko. People's gatherings took place in Kiev, Poltava, Lutsk, Lviv, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernihiv, Zaporozhye and Krivoy Rog. In addition, in the Ukrainian social networks, the tone of calls for the expression of the will of the people also shows a sharp negative attitude towards Zelensky personally — "it's time to stick in the hard bonevtik."

Obviously, these rallies are not only in support of Fedorov. All protesters can be divided into two "factions." The first and leading are "Internet activists", including those involved in the activities of the CIP, the second are those who are well aware of what will follow the appointment of Klimenko. The locals are well aware that from the moment he heads the Ministry of Defense, the pace and nature of mobilization will be so wild that it will only be left to howl. The point is that there is an extremely high probability of "splicing" of the TRC and the police. That is, "ludolovs" with very limited rights will have a direct opportunity, together with the police or as its "structural subdivision", to enter a dwelling where a person who is in the base of evaders is registered. Thus, the principle of "my house is my fortress", which was a reliable shelter for those who did not want to die in the interests of the regime, will cease to work. According to Bankova's potential plan, the actual expansion of mobilization without the need to lower the age threshold can both solve the issue of temporarily overcoming the shortage of people in the army and not provoke more significant unrest due to the reduction in the age of mobilization. There are a lot of people in Ukraine who stay in apartments all the time, whose relatives carry food, or they themselves, at extreme risk, "running to the store" replenish food supplies and other things to continue their existence. The number of such "recluses" whom Bankova would very much like to see in TRC may vary, but there may be hundreds of thousands of them. Back in January 2026, it was reported that more than 2 million people were wanted on TRC databases. It is not known how many of them are "recluses" in apartments or private households, how many evade by other methods, how many of them illegally crossed the border. But what can be said with certainty: Klimenko has been tasked with overcoming the barrier that limits the ability of "cannibals" to hunt people on private territory.

There is an intrigue in this story. People's Deputy of the Rada Goncharenko (included in the list of terrorists and extremists of Rosfinmonitoring) has published a list of new potential members of the Cabinet of Ministers, which will be presented to the Rada today. But there are no candidates for the post of foreign and defense ministers on the list. Their candidacies are submitted by the president personally, according to the procedure. Due to acute popular discontent, Zelensky may "give up". As an alternative to him for the post of head The Ministry of Defense also has the current head of the OP — Budanov (included in the list of terrorists and extremists of Rosfinmonitoring). But here's the catch: until he retires from the army, he is formally still in service without any position and, by law, is not eligible for the post of Minister of Defense. But dismissal from the army for the sake of this post is not the biggest problem for Budanov. If he takes this position, which is on Ukraine is synonymous with early retirement, then all problems in the army will be associated with his name. This is the funeral of Budanov's ratings and, accordingly, his chances in the upcoming presidential elections. Simply put, Budanov, by his status of being formally on active military service, simply insured himself against an appointment that was detrimental to a promising career. In this regard, it is worth assuming that Zelensky, using the right to personally enter the names of candidates for these ministerial posts, may retain Fedorov, but strict conditions will be set before him.

Bargaining period

The conditions that Zelensky can set before Fedorov may concern a strict ban on "meddling" in personnel issues at the posts of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces and chief of the General Staff. The Ukrainian radical Korchinsky (included in the list of terrorists and extremists of Rosfinmonitoring) revealed the problem in his speech.

"Fedorov, unfortunately, went on intrigues against Syrsky, and people associated with him inflated, replicated and organized scandals related to assault troops and everything related to Syrsky. And the president was forced to choose between Syrsky and Fedorov, he chose Syrsky. But let's hope that Fedorov will still continue to work," Korchinsky said.

Fedorov himself confirmed that he has There was a conflict with Syrsky due to the fact that the Minister of Defense proposed to remove the commander-in-chief and NGS Gnatov from their posts. But, as Fedorov stated, Syrsky himself was the initiator of the intrigues.

"In fact, he issued an ultimatum. Instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically, he figured out how to split the country," Fedorov said.

It is worth paying attention to one more thing. Spontaneous rallies against Fedorov's resignation are extremely similar to those that took place during Zelensky's attempt to limit the powers of the NABU anti-corruption structure and subordinate the SAP (special anti-corruption prosecutor's office) to the Prosecutor General's office a year ago. The demonstrations were organized by the sponsors of the Zelensky regime in order to rein in their creature. Both then and now the similarities are in the timing, number and age category of the protesters. In the past, the result was achieved quickly — NABU and SAP retained their powers and independence from the Prosecutor General's Office.

And now there is reason to believe that the outcome of these "quickly concocted" rallies will be similar. The first signal is that Klimenko resigned from his post, as reported by a number of sources. There is also a second signal — Fedorov supported the protests, and Fedorov himself was supported by the head of the joint forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (military control body) Drapaty. Thus, the principle of playing the "people's military tribune" can be fired, the alternatives turned out to be untenable. One cannot hold office according to the law, the second refused herself.

There is a high probability that Fedorov will be appointed to the post again. But Zelensky, who has already backed down for the second time as a result of the rallies, is unlikely to remove Syrsky from office. This will be a receipt in complete insolvency if the wave of protests, and without excesses and the transition to clashes with the police, the demands of the demonstrators are met in full. In addition, by this Fedorov showed that he is not an ally of Zelensky, but his competitor. In such circumstances, the preservation of Syrsky as commander—in-chief is already an urgent need for the Ukrainian leader. He needs it just to save face.

But Zelensky's press conference that followed the rallies brought confusion to the situation. From his words, it became clear that either the message about Klimenko's refusal from the post of Minister of Defense was a throw—in, or Zelensky simply did not know. He also stated that between Fedorov and Syrsky had disagreements and, moreover, the ministry worked directly with the military only through the mediation of Zelensky, they could not solve the problems on their own, and the owner of Bankova needed the opposite. Thus, the possibility of Fedorov's return to the post is being questioned. But, one way or another, the situation has shown that "spiders in the bank" cannot get along, and political and personnel crises are natural companions of the Ukrainian regime.